Sunday, November 11, 2007

The First Rule of Fight Club Is

... you do not trade Tim Lincecum. Or Matt Cain for that matter.

A few days ago, Tracy Ringolsby reported, “Tim Lincecum, [the Giants’] No. 1 pick in 2006, can be had for a quality bat.”

Say what? Maybe it’s a bit of common media exaggeration. Understandably, the Giants are in no position to refuse to listen to any trade offers for Lincecum, but who are those quality bats?



Miguel Cabrera: Floating rumors have suggested that the Marlins will take Lincecum straight up for Miggy. Cabrera instantly fills a void at 3B and at a power spot in the lineup. Last season, he batted .320/.401/.565 with career highs in home runs (34) and RBIs (119).

Why not: Not only is his batting prowess growing, so are his waistline, errors (23, up from 17 in 2006), and questionable work ethic. Most importantly, he is eligible for arbitration and free agency after 2009 and could command at least $10 million. On the other hand, Lincecum is under contract for the next 5 years. I would not want to give up five guaranteed years of superb pitching and discipline in exchange for a probable one-year rental.



Delmon Young and Carl Crawford or BJ Upton: Young, the talented Rays’ outfielder, easily exhibits more upside than any of the young Giants outfielders. That goes for Crawford and Upton too.

Why not: First off, the Rays would laugh Sabean off the phone if he offered Lincecum for Young and either Crawford or Upton. Lincecum could probably fetch Young and a developing prospect, not Crawford or Upton. Secondly, the Giants have a glut in the outfield. Trading for Young and Crawford/Upton means moving Dave Roberts and Randy Winn to other teams. It’s not impossible, but Roberts has a hefty contract and Winn holds to right to veto trades to ten different teams.

If the Giants are trading Lincecum, they should receive Evan Longoria and a developing infield prospect. Longoria and Lincecum both are “unproven” in terms of major league experience but have shown incredible talent, so the trade balances. The infield prospect comes from the fact that Lincecum has played and can handle, even dominate at times, the big league.

I am all for improving the Giants’ offense in any way possible, as long as the names don’t include Lincecum (or Cain). They are the anchors of the team and will complement any good (or at least league-average) offense the Giants have in the future.

Lincecum and Cain, they keep us sane.

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