Tim Lincecum, Cy Young Winner

*cue 1812 Overture*

Will the Warriors Shoot More Efficiently?

I forgot to mention earlier about Golden Stat Hoops, a new Warriors blog with a statistical emphasis. It's a timely blog in light of the fact that basketball has started trending away from boxscore stats like FG% to more telling metrics.

GSH's first post examines a problem that has plagued the Warriors for a couple years -- scoring efficiency -- using eFG% (efficient field goal percentage) and TS% (true shooting percentage) to predict if the team's efficiency will improve this season. I found it a great and informative read, especially since FG% and PPG are too limited to do an effective shooter (or otherwise) justice.

A Banner Start to the Offseason

Remember when Sabean accidentally DFA'd Sergio Romo?

He slipped up again, except this time it wasn't Romo and not so accidental. According to Paul DePodesta, the Giants removed Travis Denker from the 40-man roster and the Padres picked him up for free.

Cue obligatory "what was Sabean thinking?" picture.

First, let me quickly address the other victims of what OGC calls "the purge of the 40-man roster."

• Tyler Walker: Good guy, but expendable in light of Romo's success.
• Kevin Correia: Will probably be sent back to the bullpen once Lowry returns, unless he is signed by another team as a free agent.
  
• Brad Hennessey: Ditto.
• Eliezer Alfonzo: Expendable, thanks to Sandoval and Posey coming down (up?) the pipes.
• Geno Espinelli: He looked okay in the bigs, though he could use more time in the minors to improve his stuff.
• Scott McClain: The Giants will probably renew his contract.
  
• Ivan Ochoa: Should have been Vizquel's replacement instead of Bocock. He did a fine job defensively and didn't look lost at the plate.

Only problem I have is if Lowry goes down again (which is likely considering the number of setbacks he faced during the season), the Giants don't have a clear backup starter. Pat Misch?

I won't lose sleep over the fact that Denker is gone. What is befuddling is the lack of any benefit for the Giants from dropping Denker.

The Giants dumped a middle infielder who wasn't an outstanding prospect, but who did show signs of being a capable major league player. His MLE's (243/.332/.381) are below average, even for a second baseman, but all he did during his short stint as a Giant was show patience at the plate and hit for power. Denker might well turn out to be a AAAA player, and even so, he still has more value than the remaining 2B's and seven empty roster spots.

So where's the benefit? If the Giants had a legit 2B waiting in the minors, then I have no problem with dropping Denker from the team. But they don't. Instead of strengthening an organizational weakness, this move is just another item in Sabean's laundry list of personnel mistakes. If the dumping of Travis Denker is the start of the offseason, I'm not exactly confident in the moves-to-come during the rest of the winter.

Bill Neukom Speaks

Bill Neukom held his first press conference as the Giants' new managing partner a few days ago and outlined his thoughts on the direction of the franchise. Considering he now parks his car in Peter Magowan's former space, it's a good idea to take a look at what he has to say.

Andy Baggarly (of course) has already transcribed the entire conference, including a few individual questions, here.

Below are my thoughts on some snippets I found interesting:

And how we’re going to do that is by emphasizing and investing even more in homegrown talent. We have to find the best baseball athletes we can find, through better scouting and better analysis of the amateur draft.

Though the draft is a given no-brainer as a fundamental part of a successful franchise, it's refreshing to hear Neukom clearly deem it as the primary focus for the 2009 season and beyond. Free agent signings have been the Giants' modus operandi since 2000 up until two years ago, when they concluded what was hailed as a strong draft. The string of good scouting and drafting, including signing international players, should continue under Neukom's direction.

We want to bring those people along in a way that enables them to convert their gifts into major league skills and we think we’ll have maybe a little more time and a little more discretion. Some of the people who came up this year, frankly, came up sooner than might have been perfect if we’d had a deeper system. It somewhat accelerated things in 2008 and we hope we can get to more of a sort of modulated progression.

The Giants promised a youth movement in the beginning of the 2008 season, and they sure did deliver on their word. A total of 16 rookies made their first debut, although some of them might have benefited from more time in the minor leagues. The Giants entered the season without any defined plan, but the "throw-stuff-at-the-wall-and-see-what-sticks" philosophy worked out better than I expected, thanks to the emergence of Burriss, Romo, Sandoval, and Hinshaw. Once the franchise decides the areas that need the most improvement, call-ups shouldn't be as haphazard.

We have asked Brian and his group to look broadly at the question of the roster for 2009 and beyond. That means primary emphasis on homegrown talent, (determining) how much of this young talent can we expect to produce on a sustainable basis during a championship season next year, whether we need to complement it with a trade, or fold those risks and expenses with a free agent signing.

More emphasis about building from the inside out.

We said to Brian and to Bruce Bochy, 'Look, don’t be constrained by a placeholder number for player payroll right now. Think of this in terms of how you’re going to assemble a roster that’s going to be competitive in ‘09 and come back to us.'

Here's the crux of Neukom's plan: first assemble the best team possible for the long-run, and then worry about finances. The "placeholder" is a rough assessment of the cost to field a contending team, but the front office can overspend on a player (or players) if it believes that is the right move in the long-run.

When it comes to picking the talent, we need the sharpest baseball eyes: people who can pick the 16-year-old arm out of the cornfield. We also need to be very well informed with all that is at our fingertips. We need to be smart about that. It’ll be a blend.

Yay! Scouting is no good without statistical analysis, and vice versa. Neukom hits the nail on the head with his suggestion of a blend of both baseball eyes and SABR. Time to upgrade that GVSORP^TM (Gritty Veteran Savvy Over Replacement Player) to OPS+ and FIP.

How about bringing in the fences?
(Pause) It’s not a concept we’re currently considering. I think it’s a very exciting ballpark.

Heh, I couldn't have said it any better. One, the Giants have a flyball pitching staff, and two, the other team can hit home runs too. Unless the field crew moves the fences in and out every half inning.

NLCS Game Two

I'm officially done with SAT classes and the SAT for now, or at least until I get my scores back and find out I have to re-take it, so that means a renewal of blog updates!

I'm watching the game right now on MLB.com's four camera angled coverage, and let me say right now, I love the Phillies. Even if Shane Victorino is on the team.

Not Dead Yet

Ed. Note: Just checking in after a sweep of the Diamondbacks. Actual posts to resume sometime around September 27 or around that weekend.

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What were the odds that Brian Wilson would blow back-to-back save chances and Velez would bail him with game-winning hits?

One thing's for sure: the Giants, even in their present state, sure know how to play spoiler. I'll ignore the fact about the Dodgers sitting pretty in first place, because the Giants have the chance to spoil their hopes in the following weeks.

A Bit of Site News

It's this time of the year again, when summer ends and school begins. Bummer. So, posts will be sporadic, probably even more so as it's junior year. Hopefully I can pick up again about mid-September, when my weekends aren't inundated with various SAT classes.

Slider versus Atlanta Braves

Inning	Batter	Velocity	Result
1	G. Blanco	80	Ball
1	Y. Escobar	82	Called strike
1	Y. Escobar	82	Called strike
1	Y. Escobar	81	Groundout to 1B
2	C. Sammons	84	Ball in dirt
2	C. Sammons	85	Swinging strike, K
3	G. Blanco	83	Foul
5	C. Sammons	83	Swinging strike, K
6	C. Jones	84	Swinging strike, K
7	K. Johnson	83	Ball
8	G. Norton	82	Ball
8	Y. Escobar	86	Ball

Just When it Couldn't Get Any Better

Zito's implosion notwithstanding, yesterday was quite exciting, given the tenor of the season. Rohlinger started at third -- becoming the 13th rookie to make his debut this season and tying the 1996 team for the most in history -- and promptly airmailed a throw to Rich Aurilia. Rookie nerves. After walking back to the dugout twice after facing Randy Wolf, Rohlinger hit an 0-2 pitch for his first major league hit and RBI. All three rookies play this afternoon, so keep an eye on their performance.

If you thought yesterday was big news, today's gets even bigger. The Giants are on the cusp of signing Buster Posey to a major league contract worth $7.5 million. This is great news, as earlier reports had Posey's signing coming down to the last hour on Friday.

Additionally, third-rounder Roger Kieschnick signed for $525,000 and fourth-rounder Brandon Crawford signed for $375,000. There was some doubt shrouding Crawford's signing as he could have opted to return to UCLA to raise his stock. I wrote this bit about him after the first draft day:

As a pull hitter, he has power, but he's lost confidence this year because of a rough Cape Cod season. When he's on though, he regularly drives balls and has a solid arm in the hole.

Good to see him decide to sign with the Giants.

Another notable signee is Juan Carlos Perez, a 13th round CF. Troubles with his visa caused him to drop to the 13th round, so he is more talented than his slot suggests. The Giants are taking a small risk by signing him, especially if he is not eligible to play, but they gave him a contract for 2009 in hopes that he sorts out his visa issues.

Remember all the hype surrounding whom the Giants picked that sunny June day? The Giants have lived up to it by signing most of their draft picks, and nearly all of the important ones.

Rift in Space-Time Continuum

BREAKING NEWS: Reported by Andy Baggarly, Brian Sabean has made a smart, beneficial roster change. As of now, the Giants have a brand spanking new infield.

*drumroll*

Welcome, Ryan Rohlinger!

Rohlinger comes up from Double-A Connecticut and will take over third base. The Giants face a sore dearth of players at third base, so if plays well in his time up in the big leagues, that will be one less position that Sabean has to worry about over the winter.

Welcome, Travis Ishikawa!

Ishikawa received his first cup of coffee in 2006 and consequently struggled and found himself in Single-A. This season, the Giants promoted him from Double-A to Triple-A. He tore the heck out of the ball once he arrived in Fresno, hitting .316 and 7 home runs in just the first eight games in August, bringing his total to 16.

Welcome, Pablo Sandoval!

Sandoval, who comes up with Rohlinger from Connecticut, is probably the most exciting call-up thus far. He absolutely crushed the ball since his promotion to Double-A, hitting .337/.364/.549 with 8 home runs.

Of course, what comes up, must come down. With these three promotions, the Giants cleared roster space by DFA'ing Jose Castillo and sending down Steve Holm and John Bowker. Rohlinger will take Castillo's spot at third, Ishikawa will play at first, and Sandoval will split time between catching and first base.

Comment starter: New lineup. Whats'it look like?

Here's some help (from SFGiants.com)-

Rohlinger was pressed into service immediately, penciled into Wednesday night’s lineup at third base and hitting second. He would become the 13th rookie to make his Major League debut this season, equaling the most in a year since the franchise moved to San Francisco in 1958. The 1996 club also featured 13 debuting rookies.

Oh No

No. No. No. Bad dream. No.

Update: Looks like Lincecum will be all right. From Baggarly's post-

He’s OK, according to his agent, and expects to make his next start. The liner hit him on the tibia just below the knee. Bad bruise. You may breathe normally now.

Even if his knee is fine, I hope the Giants skip his next start anyway. The Giants have nothing to play for this season. Better to miss one start by design than to run him out there and have him miss the next three.

Tuesday Links

- Andy Baggarly had a chance to talk to Fred Stanley, one of the Giants' roving minor league instructors, who updated him about some notable names in the farm system.

Of note: Stanley envisions that Nick Noonan could skip straight to Double-A. Noonan surpassed expectations this year at Low-A by posting a .283 average. If all goes well, Noonan conceivably could be up in the big leagues by 2010.

Tim Alderson and Madison Bumgarner are impressing at San Jose and Augusta, respectively. Baggarly added a comment that he's heard from several people that if Alderson could add a couple more ticks on his fastball, he would have Kevin Brown stuff. Speed is nice, but it's just gravy with exceptional command. If he can locate his pitches, which he can, then he doesn't need to throw 95-mph every time out.

As for Bumgarner, a quotation from BP's Kevin Goldstein will suffice:

He's not only the best prospect in the Giants system, but rates as one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball.

- Chris at Bay City Ball applies WAR (Wins Above Replacement) to the Giants' starting rotation. Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez make up one of the best young, talented, and cheap trios in the majors; the sum of their actual salaries only totals to $1.5 million, while $WAR values their performances at a total of $48.93.

Overall, the net value of the starting rotation is $33.67 million -- pretty good considering the value sinkhole that is Barry Zito.

- Not exactly related to Giants baseball, but an interesting article by Mark Purdy about Olympic softball, nonetheless. As you might know, this is the last year in which baseball and softball will be played in the Olympics. The IOC voted to scratch the two off the program for the 2012 London Olympics because the cost for building baseball/softball specific venues became too expensive.

Something to think about: if the games make a return in 2016, starting pitcher Jennie Finch will be 35, and Monica Abbott will be 31. Even more frightening: the last game to be eliminated from the Olympics was polo, in 1936. Have you seen guys with mallets riding horses since? Neither have I.

- Tim Lincecum versus Roy Oswalt tonight. I, for one, am excited.

Walkoff x2

If the Dodgers miss the playoffs by one game, I think they'll look back at this game and wonder why they couldn't turn a 4-6-3 double play.

Rivalry Weekend

Pitching match-ups for rivalry weekend:

Brad Penny (5-9, 5.88 ERA) v. Barry Zito (6-13, 5.40 ERA)
Hiroki Kuroda (6-8, 4.21 ERA) v. Kevin Correia (2-6, 5.53 ERA)
Chad Billingsley (11-9, 3.01 ERA) v. Matt Cain (7-9, 3.60 ERA)

Fitting match-ups, eh?

Zito hopes to continue his streak of good outings while this will be Penny's first start since June.

The Giants seemed to have figured out Kuroda last time in LA--all 7 runs came off hits. This time, Kuroda and Correia are both coming off decent starts. Hopefully Correia can return to his late-2007 form and get the win.

And lastly, Sunday features the showcase match-up of the weekend, Billingsley versus Cain. It will be a fun one to watch, especially if you like pitching duels between two guys with overpowering stuff. Disclaimer: Billingsley pitched his first career shutout against the Giants the last time out.

The big question is not if the Giants can score more than one run for Cain on Sunday, but if 25 returns to Mays Field for the outfielders' reunion. If he does come, odds are that we won't know about it until he's on the field.

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OT comment starter: Excited for the Olympics? Y/Y?

ESPN Article on Fred Lewis

I've been a big fan of Freddie, as he has been one of the few bright spots on the Giants, and this article cements the fact that you just can't help rooting for him.

Warriors 08-09 Schedule Released

The Warriors released their schedule for the upcoming season. Considering the flurry of moves made in the offseason, it definitely provides some intrigue as to when former Warriors players come back to the Oracle with their new teams.

Some quick observations:

1. Twenty-four of the first 38 games are roadies. The 07-08 Warriors played surprisingly well on the road, compiling a 21-20 record. We don't know how this new team will fare on the road, especially with the loss of Baron Davis, but it shouldn't be utterly lost. Corey Maggette played better on the road than at home last season, though his splits have been inconsistent throughout his career.

The upside of a top-heavy schedule is that it must be balanced somewhere else. In this case, January and February are relatively easy months, featuring an 8-game homestand in January and only 2 road games in February. If this Warriors team can truly contend, those are the two months in which to make a playoff push.

2. March and April. If you take a quick glance at the last half of March and onward, you would probably cringe. At first glance, it does look pretty brutal, especially the 4-game roadie featuring New Orleans, San Antonio, Dallas, and Denver. Contrary to instinct, though, the March-April run is very beneficial to the Warriors.

Most of the opponents are non-bubble teams -- teams who have already clinched a playoff spot or very close to doing so -- meaning they most likely will rest their best players to preserve them for the post-season. In other words, regular season games aren't too high on the priority list anymore. Whereas a bubble team will fight tooth and nail for every regular season game to clinch a spot, making itself a difficult opponent.

Here's how the last 18 games break down:

8 games against non-bubble teams: Lakers, Sixers, Hornets 2x, Spurs 2x, Rockets, Jazz
4 games against non-contenders: Grizzlies, Kings 2x, T'Wolves
6 games against bubble teams: Mavericks 2x, Suns 2x, Clippers, Nuggets

Though the 6 NB teams won't likely be playing for anything, those games don't automatically qualify as a win, especially for the Warriors. Still, the Warriors have more than their fair chance to win the game. The 4 games against NC teams are must-wins, as always. The schedule against bubble teams slightly tilts in the Warriors favor. Half of the games are at home, and only one of the games is on the back end of a back-to-back.

So, if I had to break the 08-09 schedule into three chunks, I would say hectic for the first two months, relaxed for the next two, and then full-out stretch run for the last.

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In non-Warriors news, Giants' management nearly lost Sergio Romo to another team thanks to their ignorance of waiver rules and signed supplemental draft pick Conor Gillaspie.

On Monday, a Wichita, Kan.-based NBC news affiliate reported Gillaspie had agreed to a pro contract with the Giants that included a $975,000 signing bonus and other incentives.

Amazingly, I believe these two events happened on the same day. God forbid the Giants sign Gillaspie and then DFA him.

The Giants have yet to sign the other 3 of their top 4 picks, though Sabean assures that they will sign by the deadline.

Slider versus Atlanta Braves

I realize that I have yet to chart the sliders Lincecum threw in his past two starts, but let's take a look at today's 3-2 win over the Braves.

Inning	Batter	Velocity	Result
1	C. Kotchman	82	Ball
1	B. McCann	83	Foul
2	M. Kotsay	84	Swinging strike, blocked, K
2	K. Johnson	79	Ball
6	O. Infante	77	Ball
6	O. Infante	80	Swinging strike, K
7	J. Francoeur	79	Swinging strike, blocked, K
8	O. Infante	82	Ball

Second Half Cain

Matt Cain has pitched superbly in four starts since the All Star Break:

4 GS, 28.2 IP, 24 H, 7 R, 10 BB, 23 SO, 1.57 ERA

One of the contributing factors to his success is the noticeable increase of breaking and off-speed pitches Cain throws. Cain--regarded as a flyball-strikeout pitcher--has started to mix in his other pitches. Chris at Bay City Ball recently wrote a post about this trend and broke down the percentage thrown of each pitch in Cain's arsenal.

Would there be any reason to believe that Steve Holm has anything to do Cain mixing up his pitches and/or his recent success? Cain pitches better when Holm catches (.219/.303/.344 against) than when Molina catches (.240/.315/.390 against), but the sample sizes are so small that the numbers probably don't mean much.

Molina has done a good job with the pitchers. The only problem I've noticed is that he sometimes tends to call for one pitch too often until the pitcher gets beaten up. Whereas Molina will stay with a pitch, Holm seems cognizant of what pitches work for the pitcher that game, and mix it up from there.

The percentages from Fangraphs suggest that Cain's incorporation of his other pitches to reduce his reliance on the fastball has been his goal for a while and not just because of Holm's catching style. I would venture to say that we see Cain's improvement when Holm catches because Holm's style is geared to highlight such improvement.

Computer Down Again

In other news, the sky is blue and water is wet.

Trying to get the PC up and running again. Posts to come soon.

Up Those Trade Values, Gentlemen

I wrote this in response to a post over at OBnB. The comment turned out longer than I expected, so I decided to refine it and use it as today's discussion point.

Bengie Molina, C
- Yankees: With Jorge Posada out for the season and Hideki injured, the Yankees could use another catcher and added offense, just in case Richie Sexson doesn't pan out. However, the Yankees hope that Posada can retrun after the start of the 2009 season, and Bengie's contract is not fitting as an injury-replacement player.

- Marlins: Lots of murmuring that they want a backstop. Only problem is, would they take on Bengie's salary?

- Angels: Jeff Mathis has been a wreck offensively: .228/.304/.389. Bengie would be a huge upgrade.

Randy Winn, OF
- Braves: I wrote a piece discussing the Winn-to-Braves rumor floating around in June. Winn would be an upgrade over Francoeur, whose slash stats (.231/.286/.369) have dropped even lower since June. Kotsay's been hitting well, only problem, as always, has been his health. There haven't been any rumblings about a trade since then, but it's best to leave open possibilities.

- White Sox: Again, Winn would be an upgrade of Swisher, who's batting to the tune of .235/.357/.411. Swisher has more pop, but Winn is more consistent and plays a better CF.

Taschner/Walker, RP
- He wouldn't net much, if anyone, by himself, but the Giants could package him with another vet. Now that we have a cluster of minor league relief pitchers, I'm a bit hesitant about trading Walker and Taschner. They're the oldest guys in the bullpen now that Yabu is on the DL, and it would be better for the Giants to keep them both for "mentoring" purposes until they receive more value in return when T/W are packaged in a bigger deal.

Open Matt Cain Admiration Thread

What a brilliantly pitched game.

Happy Birthday, Barry

It's amazing how much goes down in the space of only a year.

A Win!

What do the Giants-Nationals games and Halley's Comet have in common? They both make for rare and exciting displays at night. For one of the few times this season at Mays Field, the Giants put together a complete game--Zito pitched decently, Lewis and Molina filled the home run quota with one and two, respectively, and the defense, namely Bowker and Burriss, picked a clean game.

With the trade deadline approaching, the Giants are in full clearance sale mode. Bochy plans to start Dave Roberts in left tonight, though his lengthy stint on the DL most likely depressed his trade value. Unless a contender wants a game-winning base-stealer handy for the World Series, Roberts will remain with the Giants. The upside is that he can mentor Velez, Burriss, and Lewis on base-stealing and come off the bench late in the game as a speedy pinch hitter, but his contract somewhat sours the value he brings.

Omar, Taschner, and other vets are also being showcased. Bochy told Omar that once the trade deadline passes, he will no longer be the starter at SS (haven't we heard this before?). Taschner now gets an inning of relief a game--unless he walks two consecutive batters--instead of his usual role as lefty specialist.

In related news, Alfonzo is being sent down to Fresno in favor of Steve Holm. Baggarly speculates that the Giants could also call up Pablo Sandoval, who is mashing at AA, once they move Rich Aurilia. I'm not entirely in favor of the move if it happens, because the last thing I want to see is Sandoval sitting on the bench five days a week.

Some Headdesking and Good News

First off, apologies for not writing over the past weekend. I've been run off my feet and couldn't get the time to sit down.

Headdesk

Anyways, Gameday decided to take Sunday off, meaning I have no slider numbers to draw out. Bochy's brain apparently decided to take Sunday off, too. What the heck was he thinking, especially with the comments he made about "backing off" Lincecum's workload? It was clear that Lincecum was struggling through 6 innings and wasn't fully recovered from the flu, but Bochy pushed him to 121 pitches while, get this, Hinshaw was already warmed up in the bullpen.

Tim now has 135 innings under his belt and about 9-10 starts left. If Bochy's not being a thickhead, he would limit Tim's starts to 5 innings max to prevent any potential arm injuries. Or shut him down 3 weeks early.

Good News

Now for the good news. The Giants sent Ray Durham to Milwaukee in exchange for two minor league players. Steve Hammond is a 26 year old lefty who excelled at AA ball(7-4, 3.45 ERA), but imploded once the Brewers promoted him to AAA (0-4, 7.41 ERA). At his age, he doesn't have much upside, but he projects as a long reliever or an emergency 5th starter a la Pat Misch.

Darren Ford is yet another centerfielder with no home run power. Baseball America ranked him as the fastest player in the Brewers' organization and a plus defender. The only thing standing between him and a starting role is his bat. He batted only .230/.322/.303 in High-A Brevard County and has a strikeout rate of 26% throughout his minor league career. His speed could make him a valuable leadoff hitter, but right now, he just blends into the scrap heap of light-hitting CFs in the Giants' organization.

Overall, Hammond and Ford for Durham is a good deal for the Giants. It frees up $1.5 million in the books and forces Bochy to start playing Burriss, Velez, Ochoa, and Denker, though the latter is currently playing in Fresno. If I were Bochy, I would give the nod to Denker at second base because his bat has more pop--more doubles power than home run power, but still--than the other three's.

If you want more info on the Giants' two new players, Chris at BCB has an in-depth post about their minor league stats and the implications.

And now for the second whammy of good news. With the August 15 signing deadline approaching, many Giants fans, including myself, are worried about the draftees who are still unsigned, among them top picks Buster Posey and Conor Gillaspie. According to Rivals, they should be signed come the deadline.

When Posey was drafted by the Orioles (Ed. note: Ahem, Giants) in June, he made several statements to me alluding to the fact that he might return to school for his senior season. That, of course, was immediately after the College World Series. With much having changed since that point, Posey has gone from having an open mind about returning to school to being quoted in newspaper articles as if he's already with the Giants. Though Posey hasn't signed the dotted line, every indication has him signing with the Giants. Posey's stock will never be higher and he's already proven to be the nation's best college player. Now it's time to take that label to professional baseball.

Gillaspie had a sensational junior campaign for the Shockers, and was drafted by the Giants in the supplemental first round. As with first-round pick Buster Posey, Gillaspie has yet to sign with the Giants. Still, that might not mean much. According to a source we spoke with at Wichita State, it would come as a huge surprise if Gillaspie decides to return to school for his senior season. After an outstanding season at the plate, Gillaspie's stock is at an all-time high and probably can't improve much. As a result, I'd expect to see Gillaspie sign before the August deadline.

Crazy Crab Bobblehead Night

Per SFGate:

75 percent of fans polled in 1984 said they'd boo any mascot.

Los Angeles Clippers Warriors

Per ESPN:

The Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday identified the latest target in their recovery from the free-agent loss of Elton Brand by signing restricted free agent Kelenna Azubuike of the Golden State Warriors to an offer sheet.

NBA front-office sources told ESPN.com that the Clippers -- using their estimated $3 million in salary-cap space left over after completing a trade Tuesday with the Denver Nuggets to acquire center Marcus Camby as their primary Brand replacement -- have awarded Azubuike a three-year deal worth an estimated $9 million.

And the game of musical chairs between the north and south continues...

ESPN's point of contention is that Azubuike would not receive playing time thanks to the logjam created by Monta, Maggette, Jackson, and Belinelli. Yes, Belinelli, of all people, is considered higher on the totem pole than Azubuike.

The truth of the matter is, the Warriors are not as deep as they would like to pretend. If Nellie sticks to his declaration, Monta will play the majority of his minutes as point guard, with Jackson and Maggette occupying the 2 and 3 spots, respectively. Belinelli's performance in the summer league doesn't merit the first backup position for either of the latter two.

Azubuike is a great story: kid who leaves college early to help his family, doesn't find immediate success, but works his way into a regular role on an NBA team. He rebounds well for a guard and still has room to improve. The only problem is that he has a similar skill set to Maggette's, though in a reserve role.

He's being paid as a reserve, roughly $3 million a year for 3 years. The Warriors do have cap space to sign him, as Biedrins and Monta's contract extensions are still undergoing discussion. If the Warriors sign Azubuike and Turiaf in addition to finishing up the extensions for Biedrins and Monta, they'll be hard-pressed to sign a backup point guard, as they're already over the cap.

So these questions remain:
1. Is Watson capable of handling the backup PG position?
2. If not, will the Warriors have enough money and cap space left to entice an FA point guard without hitting luxury tax?
3. If not, will the Warriors trade Al (in a package) for a point guard?

Giants' Midseason Report

At the beginning of spring training, the SF Chronicle posted 5 questions to consider over the course of the season. Now that we're nearly through with the All Star Break, we've seen enough to answer those questions.

Onward!

1. Is this a 100 loss team?

Mathematically, no. The Giants are currently 40-55, on pace for a 68-94 season. Their Pythagorean winning percentage of 41-54, which estimates a team's winning percentage given runs scored and runs allowed, matches this projection and confirms that the Giants have been playing at an expected level.

Realistically, it depends on what Sabean does at the trade deadline. One hundred losses means that he's jettisoned most of the vets and Bochy pens in a lineup featuring players who are all under 30 years old. If the Giants stay as they're currently constructed, then no, this isn't a 100 loss team. Durham and Aurilia are back from the dead, and Winn is a notorious second-half hitter. Lincecum is already one of the best pitchers in the game, Sanchez is a pleasant and impressive surprise, and Cain has been pitching better since the start of June.

Again, 100 losses hinges on the departure of the veterans. It would be difficult to watch, but encouraging for the future.

2. How good is that rotation?

This one's easy. Do not question the triumvirate of Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez. It's the other two members of the rotation that are disappointing.

In a nutshell, Zito's 2008 campaign hasn't been as hellacious as the first half of 2007. For a long answer, here's a snippet from Lefty Malo's excellent post about the rotation:

Zito is trying new stuff — fewer moving parts in his windup, a lower arm angle — with mixed but encouraging results the past month. Not easy to do mid-season, but if any athlete can re-learn his craft on the fly under this much pressure, it’s Zito. He’s healthy (we think), open-minded and hard-working.

Correia is probably the most disappointing starter. After a sparkly 3-1, 2.54 ERA late season performance last year, he looked like a solid 5th starter. After an oblique injury, he wasn't the same, pitching into the 6th inning only once. It's possible that he still could be suffering from the strained oblique, so once he fully recovers--which shouldn't be too troublesome since the injury is on the opposite side of his pitching arm--he could regain his late 2007 form and string together a few victories.

3. Who is the third baseman?

Jose Castillo is a downgrade defensively from Pedro Feliz, but at least he's significantly cheaper. He's having a career year, if that means anything, and that's as good as it gets.

What's troubling are these splits:

Bases empty: .278/.323/.467
Men on base: .232/.301/.345
RISP: .225/.296/.348

He's been putrid at the plate with runners on, which devalues his seemingly OK slash stats (.258/.313/.413).

Castillo is an OK stopgap, but he is definitely not the answer for 2009 and beyond.

4. Does Ray Durham have one contract drive left?

Why, yes, yes he does. After taking a nosedive last season, Durham has rebounded to an above-career-average of .293/.385/.414 with a 113 OPS+ and his LD% is back up to 21.5%. Not bad for a guy we left for dead.

Now that he's no longer Mendoza-lining, contending teams are reportedly interested in Durham's services. He's been linked with the Brewers, whose Rickie Weeks just isn't cutting it for them at second base (.217/.320/.367). Durham told Andrew Baggarly a few weeks ago that he wouldn't use his 10-and-5 rights to block a trade.

5. Can they close the deal?

Despite a shaky couple of weeks leading up to the break, the Giants' bullpen has pitched well. Yabu is a gem for a guy who was out of a job right until spring training. He also gets style points for inducing the Giants' first triple play in 9 years on one pitch. Opposing teams haven't scored against Walker in 32 of 41 innings, and the number of home runs he's given up are just a blip in his career rate.

As for the young arms in the bullpen, they don't throw enough strikes, but they're a promising bunch. Walker, Yabu, and Taschner are still receiving the bulk of high-leverage situations, but Bochy is gently easing in Hinshaw, Matos, and Romo.

And of course, Brian Wilson. He should stop making every save an adventure, but he's the best closer we've seen since Joe Nathan himself.

---

Wow, this post turned out longer than I thought it would be.

Lincecum Out of All Star Game

Looks like Tim has finally met his match: the flu. Baggarly reports that Lincecum began feeling sick last night and he definitely will not pitch tonight. Terrible, as he was one of my few reasons to watch the All Star Game.

Get well, Timmy!

Update: Lincecum was hit with what was probably a respiratory illness that was going around the Giants' clubhouse during the road trip. He went to the hospital to get IV fluids and is reportedly feeling better, although he still won't pitch in the All Star Game. Brian Wilson, though, will pitch in the 8th inning to set up Brad Lidge.

It'll be fun watching the AL batters rear back from a 102-mph heater up and in. Not so much fun when Wilson gives up 2 hits (it is a non-save situation, after all).

Update: Mays and McCovey sighting!

Tim Lincecum: Professional Pitcher

Inning	Batter	Velocity	Result
1	D. Lee	84	Ball
1	D. Lee	82	Ball
3	R. Theriot	81	Ball
3	M. Fontenot	82	Swinging strike, K
3	D. Lee	82	Ball
4	J. Edmonds	84	Ball in dirt
6	D. Lee	83	Called strike
7	H. Blanco	83	Called strike, K
7	K. Fukudome	84	Foul
8	D. Lee	83	Swinging strike

Once again, Lincecum precludes what could have been a depressing All-Star Break for the Giants with a dazzling performance: 8 IP, 1 R, 6 H, 1 BB, 9 K. He even helped his own cause by driving in the first run of the game with an RBI triple.

Two key points of the game, I think, were Fukudome's at-bat in the 7th and Ramirez's at-bat in the 8th. Fukudome is one of the few hitters that consistently gives Lincecum a workout. Yesterday was no different. The slider was only one pitch of an 11-pitch at-bat before Tim struck him out with changeup.

In the eighth, Tim gave up two infield singles and Aramis Ramirez was at the plate. Given the Giants' tendency to give up 3-run jacks on this road trip, I was nervous. Turned out I didn't need to be, as he got Ramirez to ground into a double-play.

With these two batters, Tim showed that he's matured as a pitcher and can get the timely out in a big situation. He has the patience to grind out an at-bat and not give in to the hitter; he knows when to get quick outs by pitching to contact instead of trying to strike out the hitter. As Krukow says: "He's a pitcher, now. Not a thrower."

The only question now is if Tim will participate in the All-Star Game after throwing 116 pitches. Clint Hurdle chose Ben Sheets as the starter because Brandon Webb pitched yesterday, so it's likely that Tim will be limited to an inning, if he even pitches at all. Good. There's no rush to push him into an All-Star Game with 129.2 IP already under his belt, and I don't want to see one of the Giants' lone bright spots on the DL because of an exhibition game. Besides, he'll have another opportunity, or 8, to start the All-Star Game.

---

Odds and ends to wrap up today:

- The Giants signed 16-year old Rafael Rodriguez from the Dominican Republic over the weekend. He's vaunted as the "next" Vlad Guerrero and Dave Winfield, but Giants scouting director John Barr discouraged those comparisons. They're unfair, considering he just turned 16 and is still raw, but the Giants like what they see in him. Here's what Barr said about Rodriguez:

We felt he was one of the best international players we got a chance to look at. This player is 6-foot-5, 198 pounds. He's shown us really all the tools to play the game. He can run. He can throw. He's shown us power and the ability to take the ball the other way. He's a five-tool player. Adding to that, he has the makeup and work ethic to fulfill his abilities.

- Could Omar Vizquel retire during the break? Not so, says the wiz himself.

- Baggs also speculates that the team just isn't that high on Schierholtz. I think they like him enough not to burn up his options with Winn playing the majority of the time in RF, but not enough to promote him regardless of Winn's contract status. Not to mention the cluster of young outfielders, Lewis and Bowker, who are also making a case for regular starts.

Wiki

Summer League 2008: Warriors vs Sixers

I just remembered that the Warriors' summer league opener started today. We're just starting the 3rd quarter, Warriors ahead 53-48 as I type.

Online streaming of the game and boxscore.

Head on over to Golden State of Mind for an ongoing livethread of the game. Looks like Randolph is having a pretty nice game so far, despite 5 fouls and 4 turnovers.

Update: End 3rd quarter. Slim 1 and Slim 2 (thanks Sleepy Freud) putting up great numbers so far.

Wright: 15 points, 4-6 shooting, 7-8 FTs, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks in 26 minutes
Randolph: 22 points, 8-13 shooting, 6-6 FTs, 5 rebounds, 2 steals in 23 minutes

Update: Marco Belinelli just hit a Baron-esque step-back fadeaway baseline jumper. He was quiet for most of the game, presumably to let other rookies get some burn, and now is starting to heat up, hitting 3 of his last 4 shots.

Update: Warriors win 96-89 on the wings of two great performances by Wright and Randolph, with the latter scoring 30 points in his debut. The totals of the two:

45 points, 17-25 shooting, 13-17 FTs, 15 boards, 5 blocks, 3 steals in about 30 minutes.

Summer league stats, much like spring training, mean absolutely nothing, but it's hard not to get excited about the Warriors' two towers.

Of note: Wright guarded Marreese Speights, the guy I hoped the Warriors would take in the draft, for the majority of the game. Speights scored 22 points in 34 minutes, but it took him 19 shots and 12 free-throw attempts to do so.

Hendrix is listed as DNP on the boxscore. Apparently he's out with a bruised hip, similar to the injury that kept Wright out for the entirety of last year's summer league strained quad. The impending signing of Ronny Turiaf won't help Hendrix's bid for a roster spot, and neither will this event. According to Janny Hu, the Warriors hope that he'll be ready to go on Sunday or Tuesday, though.

More Roster Shuffling

From Baggs:

Travis Denker, who didn’t look so hot yesterday in New York, was optioned down to Single-A San Jose. Infielder Ivan Ochoa, a Triple-A All-Star, has joined the club. (They purchased his contract and added him to the 40-man roster, which had a vacancy ever since Chulk was outrighted.)

It doesn't make sense to send Denker all the way down to San Jose, but it's probably the only place where he can play everyday. Fresno will have its All-Star break next week and will be off for 4 days.

As for Ochoa, better late than never. I guess Bochy will move Manny over to second base if both he and Ochoa start a game. If.

Matt Cain vs Jason Marquis.

F. Lewis LF
R. Durham 2B
R. Winn RF
B. Molina C
A. Rowand CF
J. Bowker 1B
R. Aurilia 3B
O. Vizquel SS

Welcome to the bigs, Ochoa, here's your spot on the bench.

Statline Flatlining

Ick. In a 3-game series against the Mets, the Giants decide to close up shop a week early for the All-Star Break.

In 3 games: 3 R, 9 H, 24 SO, .233 BA

The only positive about the Mets series is that all hope of being 4 GAMES BACK!!!11! during the Dodgers series is effectively stomped out. Meaning: sell, sell, sell.

On the Razor and Mr. T yesterday, Sabean said the team is selling, regardless of how many games out of first they were. The Giants were, at the time, 13 games below .500 and with no realistic shot at the playoffs. The players worth trading include Aurilia, Durham, and possibly Winn and Molina.

Hello, Corey Maggette

With the Sixers winning the Elton Brand sweepstakes, the Warriors turned to the second-tier alternative coming out of LA: Corey Maggette. And when I say second-tier, I mean second-tier. From what I've seen of him during Warriors-Clippers games, he gets to foul line and converts at an above-average rate, but every other aspect of his game is lacking. Here's what sideline reporter Matt Steinmetz has to say:

First off, Maggette is injury prone. He’s been in the league nine seasons and has played 70 or more games just four times in his career. Maggette’s body says Iron Man; his stats say Tin Man.

Maggette is a great sub, the kind of aggressive scorer you love coming off the bench. He has a shoot first mentality and is a mediocre defender at best. In other words, as a sixth man he’s great, as a starter he’s not.

Maggette has made it clear he wants to start and be a primary offensive option. But he’s the type of high-maintenance player who doesn’t make teammates better. In fact, because he doesn’t create much, there tends to be a lot of standing around when he’s got the ball on the perimeter.

Maggette has never played for a winner. His teams have missed the playoffs in eight of the nine seasons he’s been in the league. The one year a Maggette team made the playoffs was in 2006, when the Clippers made it to the postseason. That year Maggette played 32 games.

For $50 million over 5 years? Oh boy.

If that figure is correct, then Maggette will make roughly $9 million this season, taking up a decent chunk of cap space. Some numbers to get a wider sense of the Warriors' financial situation:

Cap: $58.69 million
Lux tax: $71.15 million
Warriors' salaries: ~$49 million

Factoring in Foyle's buyout ($6.9 million), Anthony Randolph's rookie contract, and Richard Hendrix's minimum salary, the Warriors have roughly $9 million under the cap to play with. Keep in mind, Monta, Biedrins, and Azubuike can all be signed regardless of the cap. Once that trio is signed, the Warriors will be just under lux tax.

So what to do with that $9 million? That amount won't bring in a solid PG, but it does help in making trades for one. At this time, only max deals can pry the FAs such as Smith and Iggy out from their respective teams.

Comment starter: You're Chris Mullin with $9 million. Whosit gonna be?

UPDATE: The Warriors reportedly offering Ronny Turiaf $17 million over 4 years. Well, that slices down the $9 million to about $5 million to play with. And we still don't have a point-guard.

Time Release Jinx

Inning	Batter	Velocity	Result
1	C. Beltran	83	Ball
1	D. Easley	81	Ball
2	B. Schneider	82	Ball
3	C. Beltran	83	Ground ball single to RF
5	J. Reyes	82	Foul

Exactly a week after Lincecum graces the pages of SI:

- he loses for the first time since the Gary Darling incident.
- he serves up two home-runs after giving up 5 in the past 3 months.
- the Giants are shutout for the first time since June 14.

There can be only one explanation: the baseball gods feel threatened by Lincecum and his success. They therefore decided to give him a loss and push his HR/9 ratio closer to league average to make him seem mortal.

Au Revoir et Bonne Chance!

As of today, Mickael Pietrus is a full-fledged member of the Sanctuary for Outcast Warriors, otherwise known as the Orlando Magic.


Details of the deal are not yet confirmed, but he's reportedly getting most of the mid-level exception and a 3-year contract with a player option for the fourth. It's a bit much for what we've seen of him, but he's not a bad fit for the Magic. According to Janny Hu, Pietrus will get the chance to compete for the starting off-guard position, which suits him better than the PF spot Nellie asked him to play here. His rebounding numbers (2007-2008: 3.7/game, 6.6/36 minutes) are good if he plays as the 2-guard.

Pietrus' leaving doesn't mean much for the Warriors, other than his cap hold of $6.9 million coming off the books. I'd surmise that the Warriors pushed offers for Brand assuming Pietrus would be gone. The PR department does have to find a new poster boy for Valentine's Day adverts, though.

Overall, thanks for the laughs, Monsieur Pietrus!

Roster Shuffling

Brian "The Hebrew Hammer" Horwitz down, Eugenio Velez up.

Good move for Horwitz: more playing time for him.

I'm a bit torn about Velez. He's raking in AAA to the tune of .310/.372/.502, but he's been caught stealing 9 times out of 22. As if we haven't seen enough pickoffs already.

Another little dilemma: where is he going to play? Burriss, Durham, and to a lesser extent, Denker, share time at second already. The outfield, where the Grizzlies have been working out Velez, is filled up, which will be yet another problem when Dave Roberts makes his return.

Update: Andrew Baggarly speculates about a Ray Durham trade in the works.

Congratulations

Off-day fun: Vote in Aaron Rowand to round out the NL's All-Star Team. Or, send incumbent Zito-hater Tim Kawakami some well-deserved hate mail criticism.

Lincecum Slider vs Chicago Cubs

Inning	Batter	Velocity	Result
1	K. Fukudome	83	Foul
1	K. Fukudome	80	Swinging strike, K
1	D. Lee	84	Line drive single to CF
3	R. Johnson	89	Called strike
3	K. Fukudome	84	Foul
4	G. Soto	81	Swinging strike
4	G. Soto	81	Swinging strike, K

First time all season that Tim threw all his sliders for strikes.

Open Hate LA Thread

From the TFRJ vaults:

Maggette and Brand and Smith! Oh My!

If I sat behind Mullin's desk in this time of post-Davis turmoil:

1. Lock up Monta and Biedrins. These next few years should be retooling, not rebuilding, seasons, as we have two solid young starters to match incoming players with.

2. Shop Harrington. Preferably for Javaris Crittenton, who will receive more playing time with the Warriors rather than splitting PG duties with the entirety of the Grizzlies' roster. The Grizzlies would have to throw in a couple players to make the salaries work, but the focus of the swap would be very beneficial for the Warriors.

Or, if the Warriors don't want to deal Harrington, he will be an attractive expiring contract after the 08-09 season. Not to mention another $9 million of cap space to play with.

3. Along the same lines, call up Shaun Livingston. The Clippers probably won't offer him a contract since he's coming off of that horrible injury, so the Warriors could have him for cheap. Low-risk, high-reward.

4. Don't break the bank by offering max deals. Again, we're only in a retooling season, so it doesn't make sense sacrificing cap flexibility for just one player. Down the road, cap space will be even more important as Biedrins, Monta, and Wright would be in their primes and in need of only a few complementary players.

My skeletal vision for this season's roster:

PG: Jaric/Crittenton/Livingston
SG: Ellis/Belinelli
SF: Jackson/Randolph
PF: Wright/Warrick/Hendrix
C: Biedrins/Perovic

I'm Back

Well, I certainly picked a fine time to go to a 9-day camp at Cal with minimal internet use. Apparently some guy named Baron Davis opted out of his contract to head home for the Clippers and Tim Lincecum graced the cover of SI.

Actual posts in the near future. In the meantime, if you haven't already, check out the SI article about Timmy here.

2008 Sharks Draft Wrapup

A quick look at the guys the Sharks drafted this past weekend.

Round	Pick	Player	Position	Previous Affiliation
3rd	62nd	Justin Daniels	Center	Kent High School
4th	92nd	Samuel Groulx	Defenseman	Quebec of QMJHL
4th	106th	Harri Sateri	Goalie	Tappara of Finnish Junior League
5th	146th	Julien Demers	Defenseman	Ottawa 67s
6th	177th	Tommy Wingels	Center	Miami Ohio University
7th	186th	Jason Demers	Defenseman	Victoriaville of QMJHL
7th	194th	Drew Daniels	Right wing	Kent High School

Justin and Drew Daniels - Fun fact: Justin and Drew Daniels are twin brothers. In their sophomore year (2006) at Suffern, they led Section 1 with 91 points and 90 points, respectively, before transferring to Kent High School. Before the draft, Justin was ranked #102 by Central Scouting's Mid-Term Ranking, Drew at #113.

Justin's assets

He has the combination of hands, speed, and offensive ability. He has a long stride and the ability to take the puck in the defensive zone and quickly turn up ice with it. He cycles the puck very well and showed good hands in tight and ability to play through traffic. When he has the puck, he really can control the play and the pace.

Drew's assets

A solid all-around player, who is more of a playmaker with his 36 assists on the season. He has a quick shot and showed good poise with the puck and should be a solid contributor at the college level.

Those scouting notes are from Rivals, where you can also read a great interview with both of the brothers.

Sam Groulx - Fun fact: Vlasic is Groulx's favorite NHL player. Ranked #76 by Central Scouting. Not as much information on the interwebs about Groulx as was the Daniels twins, but here's what Chris Edwards from NHL Central Scouting said of him:

Groulx's assets

Samuel was often used on both the power-play and penalty kill units, showing good puck movement from the point and good body position in front of the net to prevent the opposition from gathering rebounds. His at his best when he plays a simple controlled style game, but needs to improve his overall strength and decision making.

Groulx's 2007-2008 stats.

Harri Sateri - In addition to having the coolest name out of all the Sharks' picks, Central Scouting ranked him the second-best European goalie overall. What Goran Stubb, the NHL's Director of European Scouting had to say:

Sateri's assets

Harri is a solid goalie with a low mistake rate. He'll be a key player for the Finns during the upcoming season at the World Juniors in Ottawa. He could go in the third or fourth round of this year's draft.

A scout's observations:

Sateri has the coverage and quickness to make the necessary saves as well as the mental abilities to keep up with the game.

Sateri's stats from 2006-2008.

Julien Demers - Demers went to the 2008 OHL All-Star game as a rep for the Eastern Conference. Central Scouting ranked him #83 overall. Scouting reports from Chris Edwards and Ottawa 67's coach Brian Kilrea.

Demers' assets

Julien is a physically strong defenseman, who is solid on his skates, but he needs to improve his mobility and playmaking ability. He is at his best when he uses his strength to his advantage and keeps his puck handling simple.

Quietly Julien has become a top player in our league and is underrated by many. He is what every NHL team wants, a big, strong defensive defenseman who can move the puck. He is strong in the corners and in front of the net and can back up any challenge.

Demers' stats from 2007-08.

Tommy Wingels - Wingels was named MVP at the 2007 USHL All-Star/Prospects Game. Central Scouting hasn't ranked him, but they listed him as a "B" player in their 2006-07 Players to Watch List. Chicago Sports also has a nice article about his experience as a freshman Miami-Ohio.

Wingels stats from 2007-08.

Jason Demers - No, he's not related to Julien. According to the Sharks' website:

Demers' assets

Jason was first among all QMJHL defensemen in scoring and second on his team. He also participated as a member of San Jose’s rookie tournament squad prior to the 2007-08 season. Demers impressed Burke and his staff enough to be drafted by San Jose after his impressive junior season.

Nice. Demers' stats from Victoriaville.

Wasn't Expecting That

Inning	Batter	Velocity	Result
1	A. Gordon	87	Ball in Dirt
2	J. Guillen	83	Called strike, K
3	D. DeJesus	83	Called strike
3	D. DeJesus	83	Called strike
3	J. Gathright	87	Ball
4	A. Gordon	83	In play, GB single to RF
4	J. Guillen	82	Ball
4	J. Buck	82	Foul
4	J. Buck	82	Ball
4	J. Buck	85	Swinging strike, K
5	M. Aviles	85	Ball

Uncharacteristically rough start for Lincecum, who ran into trouble in the 3rd inning onwards after sitting on the bench for quite a while. He finished a shaky 5th inning with 8 strikeouts but gave up 5 runs in 5 innings, the most runs scored against him since August 11th, though the Giants still led 10-5. The rest of the game is not worth noting, except for this:


Tim hasn't faced much adversity this season, but he wasn't his usual dominant self the past two starts. In the last two games, he pitched 12 innings, giving up 12 hits and 9 runs. Is it possible he might be wearing down, despite his near-perfect mechanics? He's logged 102.7 innings so far--on pace for more than the 146.3 innings he pitched in 2007--a good reason for some fatigue. Or, his shaky starts are just another episode of the big league cat-mouse game: batters adjust, Tim adjusts right back.

Tim's next start will be more interesting than usual. We'll see if today's off-day helps rest his arm, or if he adjusts back into his dominating self.

Comment starter: Is Tim wearing down a bit, or is the league figuring him out?

Which Giant Will Go to NY: Poll Results

Tim Lincecum	10 (76%)
Bengie Molina	1 (7%)
Aaron Rowand	3 (23%)
Other	0 (0%)
None	0 (0%)

Obviously.

What to Do With Zito

SAT time! Sharpen your No. 2 pencils and please open your test booklets to page one. You have 25 minutes. Your time starts now.

The Splash Blog: What should the Giants do with Barry Zito?

A. Send him to the minors ala Dontrelle Willis

B. Hire Rick Peterson to work with him

C. Offer him $50 million to buy out his contract

D. Keep him out there to take losses every five days until Brian Sabean gets fired.

E. Put him on the DL with a hangnail, if necessary.

F. Your suggestion here.

Reasoning
A: Zito's contract stipulates he has the right to refuse assignment in the minors. Slim chance he revokes that right. Besides, we all know what happened the last time he pitched against a minor league team.

B: Peterson is not a genie who will magically restore 6 mph on Zito's fastball. Still, it won't hurt to bring him in to help Zito, especially when $100K is loose change compared to the Salary-Which-Must-Not-Be-Named. I don't know if Peterson can tweak Zito's mechanics to circa-2004 form, but if I were the Giants, I'm certainly bringing him in to try. The only problem is that the Mets are paying Peterson until 2009, and any money he makes will be deducted from his salary.

C: We knew Zito's signing was a disaster from the start, but by offering a 50 mil buyout, the Giants will have admitted Zito was a mistake. After the complete mishandling of Barry Bonds' departure last season and the "OMG new era of Giants baseball!!!" promotion with Zito as its poster boy, I don't think the front-office nor the PR department can take another beating.

D: I'm not sure about the Giants potentially firing Sabean for Zito's losses, considering the 2007 offseason rumors that Magowan wanted Zito more than Sabean did. It would be interesting, in a perverse way, to have a 20-game loser on the Giants, though.

E: Win-win for everyone: fans won't see him pitch, the Giants send him to the minors regardless of the clause in Zito's contract, and Zito gets to work out whatever's wrong in a low-pressure situation.

F: I'm a bit surprised The Splash Blog didn't list "bullpen blowout mop-up," but we can be a bit creative here. Instead of hiring Rick Peterson, I would hire Chris Lincecum to tweak Zito's mechanics. The guy threw an 88 mph fastball when he was 55, enough said. Or, given that teams most likely won't want Zito in a trade, the Giants could exchange him for a bag of bats. It's happened before.

My Answer: B
Fun Answer: F, bring in Chris Lincecum!

A Brave New World

Henry Schulman notes Randy Winn will be a hot name with the trade deadline approaching. Atlanta beckons.

Trading Winn, who is already benefiting the team with a steady .298/.359/.447 and 112 OPS+, would improve the Giants even more. A trade would open a spot in RF, ready for Nate Schierholtz (.303/.348/.550 in AAA) when the Giants wish to promote him. It also frees the Giants from $8.125 million owed to Winn for 2009.

Trading for Winn benefits the Braves as well. Kotsay is currently on the DL, though he is returning soon, and Francoeur is struggling (.252/.301/.416).

Most of the Braves' top prospects are struggling this year, but a package of Winn + reliever + money eating on the Giants' part could net a couple with upside. Lillibridge, Hernandez, and Flowers are potential names.

Braves' prospects:
BP's Braves Top 11 Prospects: Jan 15, 2008
John Sickels' Atlanta Braves 2008 Prospects: Nov 16, 2007
BA's Top Ten Prospects: Nov 5, 2007

Comment start'er up: Whom should Sabes trade Winn for?

Slider Numbers

Inning	Batter	Velocity	Result
2	I. Rodriguez	81	Ball
3	C. Granderson	81	Ball in dirt
4	M. Cabrera	86	Swinging strike, K
4	M. Holliman	83	Swinging strike, K
5	C. Granderson	79	Swinging strike
5	P. Polanco	86	Ball

Last night's game wasn't the strikeout gala I was hoping for, but I'll take it.

Reasons to Celebrate

There has to be something positive remaining after, say it with me, the A's beat the Giants. Again. I have a few reasons in mind:

1. The resuscitation of my computer.
2. Who else but Tim Lincecum (happy belated birthday, rock on) and his consistent dominance.
3. Lincecum vs Verlander at 7:15.

'Til then, a scattering of links:

• The Giants have gotten the ball rolling on signing their draft picks. To date, 17 out of 50 picks have signed. Notable signees include Edwin Quirarte, for $193K, and CJ Ziegler.
• Semi-forgotten Kevin Frandsen says, "I want to hit." Recovery normally takes 4-6 months, but 3 months after the injury, his rehab is ahead of schedule.
• In light of Tyler Walker's recent struggles, Bochy confirms that Keiichi Yabu is now the set-up man. Yabu has been solid given his relative anonymity and age, so he definitely earned the role.

Question: In which inning will the radar gun overheat tonight?

Kelenna Azubuike Opts Out

Not unexpected, as he played his way to a larger contract. He's an RFA, meaning that the Warriors can match any offer given by another team. Most, if not all, teams are pushing luxury tax this offseason, so the most I expect Azubuike to receive is a $1-2 million chunk of the MLE. He and his agent most likely will ask for $3 million per season, but with the extensions for Monta and Andris and the rookie contracts for two draft picks already pushing lux tax, the Warriors can't finagle that amount. That said, the Warriors will figure out a way to keep Azubuike on the team.

New Coach, No Shiny Trophies

Three days after Ron Wilson left the team for good, the Sharks quickly one-upped the Leafs by hiring Todd McLellan. Before yesterday's press conference, McLellan was most recently sighted doing this:

Despite inexperience as a head coach in the NHL, he brings the discipline of the Red Wings and the authority of a coach who has been on a Stanley Cup-winning team. His training camp gameplan for getting the Sharks past the second round:

speed through the center of the ice, getting to the net and keeping opponents' goalies busy with plenty of shots.

For now, a warm welcome for the man who can, I hope, light a fire under Thornton's behind come playoff time.

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In other Shark related news, Martin Brodeur wins the Vezina Trophy. Again. Brodeur is undoubtedly a top-notch goalie, but look at Nabokov. There were plenty of games last season where Nabby singlehandedly kept the Sharks from losing. Not to mention the epic 53-save performance to force 4 overtimes in Game 6 until the Stars got the winning bounce. Well, at least that's something else the Sharks can avenge for next season.

Giants' Batting Stances

Must, must watch. Batting Stance Guy is spot on.

Bargain Hunters

Inning	Batter	Velocity	Result
3	C. Iannetta	82	Ball
3	O. Quintanilla	84	Infield single
4	T. Helton	84	Ball
4	B. Hawpe	86	Foul
4	O. Quintanilla	84	Ball
5	M. Holliday	83	Swinging strike, K
6	G. Atkins	82	Ball
6	B. Hawpe	84	GIDP

Not much to report from last night's game, except I had fun watching Lincecum and Jimenez battle for 7 innings. Unfortunate that Bengie couldn't pull off a play at the plate to preserve a nil-nil tie, which happens since the Giants' offense typically dies a mile from sea level.

About the slider: same stuff as before. Tim normally uses the fastball-curveball or fastball-changeup combo in the first couple of innings, and then throws in the slider every once in a while to give the opposing lineup another pitch to think about the second and third times up.

When it breaks, the slider moves away from a RHB enough so if it misses, it misses low and away. (Kalk's player card)

If a batter makes contact, he only manages to hit grounders, as in the cases of Quintanilla and Hawpe.

As a whole, Lincecum gets yet another solid game to put into his resume when extension time rolls around. Right now, he's second in the league in ERA, ERA+, and strikeouts only to Edison Volquez. He's out-pitching the likes of Webb and Santana while making vastly less money than the two: a mere $405-grand. The Giants are paying a bargain price for excellent performances every 5 days. It's time to get Lincecum signed.

Previous slider goodness here.

Hi, I'm a PC

... and I crashed this morning so that my owner couldn't reboot me at all and now has to use a super-old computer that freezes every 5 minutes.

Since I can't type anything without fear of losing all my work, this post will be short.

Someone get Misch the shamrock or horseshoe that Rueter used to pitch with.

Lincecum on the mound tonight facing Ubaldo Jimenez at 6:05.

Right Me Up

Don't look now, but the Giants are only 5 games out of first in the West and riding a 7 road-game win streak, the longest since 2004. There's something to be said about the increasingly abysmal Western Division and the national emergency that are the Nats, but I'll take hot-weather hitting and sweeps any time.


The Sick Man of Major League Baseball

This was by far the Giants' best series of the season. For once, strong starting pitching combined with timely hits to get Matt Cain his third win, who showed marked improvement from his last time out.

6/4 vs NYM: 5 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 4 BB, 3 SO, 1 HR

6/9 @ WSN: 6.1 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 SO, 0 HR

Cain's one Achilles heel has been lack of control, especially with his fastball--walking one too many batters and then serving up the long bomb. Last night, we saw him pitch to contact using a mix of pitches, resulting in a few more hits but three extra strikeouts to strand runners.

It also helps to have a guy like Yabu waiting in the bullpen to clean up the bases via one-pitch double-plays in the seventh inning.

If we thought that Brian Wilson's previous saves were terrifying, those were nothing compared to last night's 4-out thriller. Wilson preserved a 1-run lead in the 8th by getting a flyball to end a bases-loaded situation, and then cleaned up the 9th despite a throwing error by Castillo. He's now in the top 10 among relievers in WPA, with the likes of Joe Nathan and Mariano Rivera, with a 1.87.

Haterade

The source of the declining value of the American dollar, skyrocketing gas prices, and global warming: the maple bat

Bruce Jenkins takes another thinly veiled jab at Barry Bonds, this time for introducing exploding maple bats into MLB.

The maple-bat craze was launched single-handedly by Barry Bonds, who enlisted the Canadian-based Original Maple Bat Company in 1999 and used maple to hit his record-breaking 73 homers in 2001.

Safety first, but when will Brucey get new material?

In slightly fresher news, the Giants look to sweep their first 4-game series against the Nationals tonight.

Lineup, courtsey of Mr. Baggarly:

lf Lewis
2b Durham
rf Winn
c Molina
cf Rowand
1b Bowker
3b Aurilia
ss Vizquel
p Cain

Good to see Bochy run Bowker out on the field again. His .248 batting average belies the inordinate number of line drives he's hit right at people.

Streaking Bowker

Thanks to John Bowker's second home run in as many days (did I mention how much I love salami?), Zito notches a second win despite going only 5 innings and allowing 11 baserunners. Not stellar, not even good, but the Giants' newfound offense is enough to dig anyone out of a 3-0 hole. Can these Giants please keep the old Giants locked away in an underground cave?

Speaking of mashing, Posey goes deep again, adding two insurance runs in the 7th inning on the way to an 11-4 victory over Gillaspie and the Shockers.

Lincecum Keeps Rollin'

Inning	Batter	Velocity	Result
3	T. Redding	86	Swinging strike, K
5	K. Casto	84	Infield hit, single
6	C. Guzman	82	Groundout
7	K. Casto	82	Ball

Before I address the slider, can we just crown Lincecum king of the universe and be done with it? He's good. He's also the first Giants in 15 years to start off a season with an 8-1 record.

All seriousness aside, yesterday's data probably is not accurate since Gameday blanked on types of pitches in the 5th and 6th innings.

The information that actually showed up supports the same points I've noticed in previous posts. Sample sizes have tailed off in Lincecum's past starts since he has not thrown nearly as many sliders per game as he did against the Cardinals. I can say that no batter has teed off on the slider yet, though Casto managed an infield single.

---

Dirty Sanchez tonight at 4. 15 hits for the Giants again?

Open Watching Buster Posey and Conor Gillapsie Thread

It's currently the top of the 4th, 3-1 to Wichita State on a 2-run home run and an RBI double.

The commentators said that the coach for the the Seminoles calls every pitch, which disappoints me because we won't be able to see how Posey manages his pitchers. No base-stealers yet, but Wichita State seems like a running team, so he'll probably get a chance to show off his rocket arm.

Bottom 4th, 3-2 Wichita: Home run by Posey on the second pitch he saw, 6th of the post-season.

Top 5th, 3-2 Wichita: Gillapsie grounds out to first. That's his second groundout of the day. Not exactly confidence inspiring, but we'll see.

You can tell that Posey is new to catching. It's not a problem, but he bounces a lot when he sets up before a pitch.

Top 5th, 4-2 Wichita: Before the run scored, Wichita stole 3rd on a slider outside the zone that Posey couldn't catch properly. After, he blocked another ball in the dirt outside the zone nicely.

Bottom 5th, 5-2 Wichita: With two outs and a runner on second, Wichita decides to intentionally walk Posey.

Top 6th, 5-3 Wichita: Commentators said that Villanueva, FSU's starter for the game, credits Posey for keeping him focused during games.

Top 6th, 8-3 Wichita: Gillapsie hits a 3-run HR on the first pitch. A home-run is always appreciated, but it seems like he likes swinging at the first pitch.

Posey catches a pitch outside the zone, then whips it to the first baseman in an attempt to nail the runner there. Though the runner was safe, Posey threw it down the line pretty fast from his knees.

Bottom 6th, 9-4 Wichita: The broadcast on ESPN dropped out with Posey down an 0-2 hole. I'm not sure how he hit into an out, but the play involved Gillaspie.

Top 9th, 10-5 Wichita: Posey drops a 3rd strike, but flips it over to first for the out. He's caught 5 different pitchers today.

Bottom 9th, 10-5 Wichita: Posey strikes out on a pitch way outside with a runner on first. He's a bum!

Bottom 9th, 10-7 Wichita: With 2 men on and 2 outs and a chance to tie up the game, Posey strikes out swinging. The pitch before, though, was a bit high and should have been ball four, but the ump called strike two. End game.

Play to Your Strengths: Draft Day 2

207: LHP Aaron King 237: LHP Scott Barnes 267: LHP Ryan Verdugo 297: RHP Ryan O'Sullivan 327: RHP Justin Fitzgerald 357: RHP Ari Ronick 387: CF Juan Perez 417: CF Caleb Curry 447: 2B Daniel Cook 477. 1B C.J. Ziegler 507. RHP Brian Irving 537. SS Brooks Lindsay 567. LF Ryan Mantle, LF 597. 2B Trey Sutton, 2B 627. RHP Michael Eifel 657. SS Carter Bell 687. RHP Jason Jarvis

717. LHP Thomas Musick 747. CF Damon Wright 777. 2B Ryan Lormand 807. RHP Kyle Woodruff 837. RHP Shane Kaufman 867. 1B Robert Flanagan 897. SS Vladimir Frias 927. RHP Aaron Davidson 957. RHP John Blake 987. LF Ryne Price 1017. RHP Francois Lafreniere 1047. 3B Daniel Black 1077. LHP Matthew Way 1107. RHP Jeremy Penn 1137. RHP Chris Wilson

Tons of pitchers taken, but I don't mind. Tidrow has a knack for finding talents, most recently Lincecum, especially in the lower rounds.

It's funny that the Giants only took 1 third-baseman, Daniel Black, so far, given that their minors system is bereft of players in the hot corner. They must have faith in Angel Villalona being capable of handling the position.

2008 MLB Draft: Day 1 Roundup

Let's give a warm welcome to the 6 new members of the Giants family, provided that the Giants can sign them, of course.

#5: C Buster Posey

After initially slamming Buster Posey in a fit of "why didn't the Giants take Smoak" fury, I'm warming up to to him. He fills one of the gaping holes in the infield, throws in potential for 10-15 home runs, and is inarguably the best catcher in the draft.

What he brings to the table:

• Named to the All-ACC first team in 2007, became the first sophomore finalist for the Johnny Bench Award, first team All American by Collegiate Baseball, named to the President's List for a 4.0 GPA.
• Currently, he leads the NCAA with .467/.567/.864. There's something to be said about aluminum bats and small parks, but a .467 average is nothing to sneeze at.
  
• Posey originally played shortstop as a freshman, but he is a fast learner and already displays great defensive potential behind the plate, nailing 40.9% of base stealers in 2007.
• Throwing a low-90's fastball up to second would explain that percentage. In addition to catching, he's expected to be FSU's closer.
• Just in case the Giants find themselves in this type of game again, Posey plays all nine positions.
• This article by Heather Dinich of ESPN closed the deal for me:

  Baseball and school, that's about all I do. That's about it, but I wouldn't have it any other way. I enjoy it, I really do.

  If you're not sold on Buster Posey yet, take a looksee for yourself today 11 AM on ESPN2 when FSU faces Wichita State (home of Conor Gillaspie, how convenient) in the Super Regionals. Game 2 is on Saturday at 9 AM, Game 3 on Sunday at 10 AM.
  

#37: 3B Conor Gillaspie

• 2007 MVP of Cape Cod League, winner of Thurmon Munson Batting Champion Trophy in Cape Cod League (won by Smoak, Derek Jeter, and Lance Berkman previously), named to first team All-Valley and Wichita All-Regional team
• I love this pick. Love it. BA ranked Gillaspie as the 13th pro prospect in the the Cape Cod League and the Giants pick him at 37. Steal!
• Like Bill Mueller, lack of power is the only real knock on Gillaspie, but I think that he has more power than people give him credit for. He hit .345 in Cape Cod with a wooden bat and amassed .673 slugging and 21 XBH, 7 of those home runs.
• Power or no power, this guy flat out hits. He batted over .400 for most of his junior year and has plate discipline. Credit to the Giants for drafting guys with power and patience this year.
  

#82: RF Roger Kieschnick

• Named to Second Team All-Big 12
• He has raw power, finishing 2007 with a .302 batting average with 25 doubles, 5 triples, and 13 home runs. His swing causes him to pull at times, which could be a problem but at the same time generate XBH.
  

#117: SS Brandon Crawford

• As a pull hitter, he has power, but he's lost confidence this year because of a rough Cape Cod season. When he's on though, he regularly drives balls and has a solid arm in the hole.
  

#147: Edwin Quirarte

• Quirarte currently serves as the Matadors' closer. Other than that I don't know too much about him. His stats aren't stellar for a closer, 4.50 ERA in 2006 and 6.57 in 2007.
  

#177: Eric Surkamp

• His sophomore season sounds a bit like Matt Cain's season last year:

  Had an outstanding, consistent season despite winning just four games ... Had seven no-decisions for the second consecutive season ... Left three of his no-decisions with the lead, three with the score tied, and one trailing by one run ... Allowed two earned runs or less in 11 of 16 appearances

• He throws a fastball in the mid to high-80's but he gets guys out, as shown by his 2.71 ERA.
  

Overall, I'm very happy with the draft so far. The Giants have broken with tradition and drafted 6 collegiate players, 4 of them position players. Brian Sabean hinted yesterday that Posey would be put on the fast track to the majors and with the big club by 2010:

(Posey) is on the fast track and Bengie’s clock is winding down,” Sabean said. “It’s really up to him how soon he wants to get going and how soon he can get here.

As I'm typing, the Giants have drafted several new players, including 6 pitchers. I'm totally in favor of this new philosophy, and let's hope the Giants get these guys signed.