Giants' Midseason Report

At the beginning of spring training, the SF Chronicle posted 5 questions to consider over the course of the season. Now that we're nearly through with the All Star Break, we've seen enough to answer those questions.

Onward!

1. Is this a 100 loss team?

Mathematically, no. The Giants are currently 40-55, on pace for a 68-94 season. Their Pythagorean winning percentage of 41-54, which estimates a team's winning percentage given runs scored and runs allowed, matches this projection and confirms that the Giants have been playing at an expected level.

Realistically, it depends on what Sabean does at the trade deadline. One hundred losses means that he's jettisoned most of the vets and Bochy pens in a lineup featuring players who are all under 30 years old. If the Giants stay as they're currently constructed, then no, this isn't a 100 loss team. Durham and Aurilia are back from the dead, and Winn is a notorious second-half hitter. Lincecum is already one of the best pitchers in the game, Sanchez is a pleasant and impressive surprise, and Cain has been pitching better since the start of June.

Again, 100 losses hinges on the departure of the veterans. It would be difficult to watch, but encouraging for the future.

2. How good is that rotation?

This one's easy. Do not question the triumvirate of Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez. It's the other two members of the rotation that are disappointing.

In a nutshell, Zito's 2008 campaign hasn't been as hellacious as the first half of 2007. For a long answer, here's a snippet from Lefty Malo's excellent post about the rotation:

Zito is trying new stuff — fewer moving parts in his windup, a lower arm angle — with mixed but encouraging results the past month. Not easy to do mid-season, but if any athlete can re-learn his craft on the fly under this much pressure, it’s Zito. He’s healthy (we think), open-minded and hard-working.

Correia is probably the most disappointing starter. After a sparkly 3-1, 2.54 ERA late season performance last year, he looked like a solid 5th starter. After an oblique injury, he wasn't the same, pitching into the 6th inning only once. It's possible that he still could be suffering from the strained oblique, so once he fully recovers--which shouldn't be too troublesome since the injury is on the opposite side of his pitching arm--he could regain his late 2007 form and string together a few victories.

3. Who is the third baseman?

Jose Castillo is a downgrade defensively from Pedro Feliz, but at least he's significantly cheaper. He's having a career year, if that means anything, and that's as good as it gets.

What's troubling are these splits:

Bases empty: .278/.323/.467
Men on base: .232/.301/.345
RISP: .225/.296/.348

He's been putrid at the plate with runners on, which devalues his seemingly OK slash stats (.258/.313/.413).

Castillo is an OK stopgap, but he is definitely not the answer for 2009 and beyond.

4. Does Ray Durham have one contract drive left?

Why, yes, yes he does. After taking a nosedive last season, Durham has rebounded to an above-career-average of .293/.385/.414 with a 113 OPS+ and his LD% is back up to 21.5%. Not bad for a guy we left for dead.

Now that he's no longer Mendoza-lining, contending teams are reportedly interested in Durham's services. He's been linked with the Brewers, whose Rickie Weeks just isn't cutting it for them at second base (.217/.320/.367). Durham told Andrew Baggarly a few weeks ago that he wouldn't use his 10-and-5 rights to block a trade.

5. Can they close the deal?

Despite a shaky couple of weeks leading up to the break, the Giants' bullpen has pitched well. Yabu is a gem for a guy who was out of a job right until spring training. He also gets style points for inducing the Giants' first triple play in 9 years on one pitch. Opposing teams haven't scored against Walker in 32 of 41 innings, and the number of home runs he's given up are just a blip in his career rate.

As for the young arms in the bullpen, they don't throw enough strikes, but they're a promising bunch. Walker, Yabu, and Taschner are still receiving the bulk of high-leverage situations, but Bochy is gently easing in Hinshaw, Matos, and Romo.

And of course, Brian Wilson. He should stop making every save an adventure, but he's the best closer we've seen since Joe Nathan himself.

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Wow, this post turned out longer than I thought it would be.