TGIF

Nothing like a 2 1/2 month leave and an accidental Flickr purge to make you miss writing for an old blog that is more like a stream-of-consciousness outlet. I think it was the Flickr purge that did it, though, seeing as I don't have the monies to pony up for a pro account and had to delete the original TFRJ banner to clear up space.

In those weeks...
...everything the Giants did was (OMGZ!) logical and reasonable. No mortgaging the future on Manny Ramirez. No trading away Jonathan Sanchez. Shoring up the bullpen by inking Affeldt and Howry to short-term deals, and doing the same with Renteria and Phelps. Now, having Uribe as backup SS/3B, the roster as currently constructed is probably what we're going to get come Opening Day. Though the team is still lacking in the power department, the Giants should feasibly hit more than last season's total of 94 home runs, especially with full seasons from Sandoval, Ishikawa, Frandsen, and Lewis.

...the Sharks have become the Bay Area's darling (read: winning) franchise. Much of their success has come McClellan's new puck possession, shot-on-goal philosophy: the Sharks' blueline has greatly improved from its 2007-08 predecessors, thanks to the acquisitions of Boyle, Blake, and Lukowich. Though they hit a rough patch in the beginning of January, their play has trended back up as of late, and even Alexei Semenov has started to notch some points.

...the 49ers, after 8 OC candidates, finally settl on Jimmy Raye. Probably the best aspect that Raye offers is his extensive experience in the NFL. Probably the worst thing is that after that buzz around Linehan, Raye isn't anyone I'm too familiar with, but Singletary knows what's best for the 49ers.

...the Warriors have regressed mightily from the 2007-08 season. Part of it hinges on the injury bug that has taken a liking to nearly every player in Nellie's rotation. The other part is the lack of defense that Nellie's running game perpetuates. On average, the Warriors give up a -4.8 point differential and a 46.6% opponent FG%, but to their credit, their W-L record should be 16-30 rather than 14-32, a result of several buzzer-beater losses. The team should benefit as Monta Ellis comes back to full speed (pun partially intended).

All in all, it's good to be back

Will the Warriors Shoot More Efficiently?

I forgot to mention earlier about Golden Stat Hoops, a new Warriors blog with a statistical emphasis. It's a timely blog in light of the fact that basketball has started trending away from boxscore stats like FG% to more telling metrics.

GSH's first post examines a problem that has plagued the Warriors for a couple years -- scoring efficiency -- using eFG% (efficient field goal percentage) and TS% (true shooting percentage) to predict if the team's efficiency will improve this season. I found it a great and informative read, especially since FG% and PPG are too limited to do an effective shooter (or otherwise) justice.

Warriors 08-09 Schedule Released

The Warriors released their schedule for the upcoming season. Considering the flurry of moves made in the offseason, it definitely provides some intrigue as to when former Warriors players come back to the Oracle with their new teams.

Some quick observations:

1. Twenty-four of the first 38 games are roadies. The 07-08 Warriors played surprisingly well on the road, compiling a 21-20 record. We don't know how this new team will fare on the road, especially with the loss of Baron Davis, but it shouldn't be utterly lost. Corey Maggette played better on the road than at home last season, though his splits have been inconsistent throughout his career.

The upside of a top-heavy schedule is that it must be balanced somewhere else. In this case, January and February are relatively easy months, featuring an 8-game homestand in January and only 2 road games in February. If this Warriors team can truly contend, those are the two months in which to make a playoff push.

2. March and April. If you take a quick glance at the last half of March and onward, you would probably cringe. At first glance, it does look pretty brutal, especially the 4-game roadie featuring New Orleans, San Antonio, Dallas, and Denver. Contrary to instinct, though, the March-April run is very beneficial to the Warriors.

Most of the opponents are non-bubble teams -- teams who have already clinched a playoff spot or very close to doing so -- meaning they most likely will rest their best players to preserve them for the post-season. In other words, regular season games aren't too high on the priority list anymore. Whereas a bubble team will fight tooth and nail for every regular season game to clinch a spot, making itself a difficult opponent.

Here's how the last 18 games break down:

8 games against non-bubble teams: Lakers, Sixers, Hornets 2x, Spurs 2x, Rockets, Jazz
4 games against non-contenders: Grizzlies, Kings 2x, T'Wolves
6 games against bubble teams: Mavericks 2x, Suns 2x, Clippers, Nuggets

Though the 6 NB teams won't likely be playing for anything, those games don't automatically qualify as a win, especially for the Warriors. Still, the Warriors have more than their fair chance to win the game. The 4 games against NC teams are must-wins, as always. The schedule against bubble teams slightly tilts in the Warriors favor. Half of the games are at home, and only one of the games is on the back end of a back-to-back.

So, if I had to break the 08-09 schedule into three chunks, I would say hectic for the first two months, relaxed for the next two, and then full-out stretch run for the last.

---

In non-Warriors news, Giants' management nearly lost Sergio Romo to another team thanks to their ignorance of waiver rules and signed supplemental draft pick Conor Gillaspie.

On Monday, a Wichita, Kan.-based NBC news affiliate reported Gillaspie had agreed to a pro contract with the Giants that included a $975,000 signing bonus and other incentives.

Amazingly, I believe these two events happened on the same day. God forbid the Giants sign Gillaspie and then DFA him.

The Giants have yet to sign the other 3 of their top 4 picks, though Sabean assures that they will sign by the deadline.

Los Angeles Clippers Warriors

Per ESPN:

The Los Angeles Clippers on Thursday identified the latest target in their recovery from the free-agent loss of Elton Brand by signing restricted free agent Kelenna Azubuike of the Golden State Warriors to an offer sheet.

NBA front-office sources told ESPN.com that the Clippers -- using their estimated $3 million in salary-cap space left over after completing a trade Tuesday with the Denver Nuggets to acquire center Marcus Camby as their primary Brand replacement -- have awarded Azubuike a three-year deal worth an estimated $9 million.

And the game of musical chairs between the north and south continues...

ESPN's point of contention is that Azubuike would not receive playing time thanks to the logjam created by Monta, Maggette, Jackson, and Belinelli. Yes, Belinelli, of all people, is considered higher on the totem pole than Azubuike.

The truth of the matter is, the Warriors are not as deep as they would like to pretend. If Nellie sticks to his declaration, Monta will play the majority of his minutes as point guard, with Jackson and Maggette occupying the 2 and 3 spots, respectively. Belinelli's performance in the summer league doesn't merit the first backup position for either of the latter two.

Azubuike is a great story: kid who leaves college early to help his family, doesn't find immediate success, but works his way into a regular role on an NBA team. He rebounds well for a guard and still has room to improve. The only problem is that he has a similar skill set to Maggette's, though in a reserve role.

He's being paid as a reserve, roughly $3 million a year for 3 years. The Warriors do have cap space to sign him, as Biedrins and Monta's contract extensions are still undergoing discussion. If the Warriors sign Azubuike and Turiaf in addition to finishing up the extensions for Biedrins and Monta, they'll be hard-pressed to sign a backup point guard, as they're already over the cap.

So these questions remain:
1. Is Watson capable of handling the backup PG position?
2. If not, will the Warriors have enough money and cap space left to entice an FA point guard without hitting luxury tax?
3. If not, will the Warriors trade Al (in a package) for a point guard?

Summer League 2008: Warriors vs Sixers

I just remembered that the Warriors' summer league opener started today. We're just starting the 3rd quarter, Warriors ahead 53-48 as I type.

Online streaming of the game and boxscore.

Head on over to Golden State of Mind for an ongoing livethread of the game. Looks like Randolph is having a pretty nice game so far, despite 5 fouls and 4 turnovers.

Update: End 3rd quarter. Slim 1 and Slim 2 (thanks Sleepy Freud) putting up great numbers so far.

Wright: 15 points, 4-6 shooting, 7-8 FTs, 6 rebounds, 3 blocks in 26 minutes
Randolph: 22 points, 8-13 shooting, 6-6 FTs, 5 rebounds, 2 steals in 23 minutes

Update: Marco Belinelli just hit a Baron-esque step-back fadeaway baseline jumper. He was quiet for most of the game, presumably to let other rookies get some burn, and now is starting to heat up, hitting 3 of his last 4 shots.

Update: Warriors win 96-89 on the wings of two great performances by Wright and Randolph, with the latter scoring 30 points in his debut. The totals of the two:

45 points, 17-25 shooting, 13-17 FTs, 15 boards, 5 blocks, 3 steals in about 30 minutes.

Summer league stats, much like spring training, mean absolutely nothing, but it's hard not to get excited about the Warriors' two towers.

Of note: Wright guarded Marreese Speights, the guy I hoped the Warriors would take in the draft, for the majority of the game. Speights scored 22 points in 34 minutes, but it took him 19 shots and 12 free-throw attempts to do so.

Hendrix is listed as DNP on the boxscore. Apparently he's out with a bruised hip, similar to the injury that kept Wright out for the entirety of last year's summer league strained quad. The impending signing of Ronny Turiaf won't help Hendrix's bid for a roster spot, and neither will this event. According to Janny Hu, the Warriors hope that he'll be ready to go on Sunday or Tuesday, though.

Hello, Corey Maggette

With the Sixers winning the Elton Brand sweepstakes, the Warriors turned to the second-tier alternative coming out of LA: Corey Maggette. And when I say second-tier, I mean second-tier. From what I've seen of him during Warriors-Clippers games, he gets to foul line and converts at an above-average rate, but every other aspect of his game is lacking. Here's what sideline reporter Matt Steinmetz has to say:

First off, Maggette is injury prone. He’s been in the league nine seasons and has played 70 or more games just four times in his career. Maggette’s body says Iron Man; his stats say Tin Man.

Maggette is a great sub, the kind of aggressive scorer you love coming off the bench. He has a shoot first mentality and is a mediocre defender at best. In other words, as a sixth man he’s great, as a starter he’s not.

Maggette has made it clear he wants to start and be a primary offensive option. But he’s the type of high-maintenance player who doesn’t make teammates better. In fact, because he doesn’t create much, there tends to be a lot of standing around when he’s got the ball on the perimeter.

Maggette has never played for a winner. His teams have missed the playoffs in eight of the nine seasons he’s been in the league. The one year a Maggette team made the playoffs was in 2006, when the Clippers made it to the postseason. That year Maggette played 32 games.

For $50 million over 5 years? Oh boy.

If that figure is correct, then Maggette will make roughly $9 million this season, taking up a decent chunk of cap space. Some numbers to get a wider sense of the Warriors' financial situation:

Cap: $58.69 million
Lux tax: $71.15 million
Warriors' salaries: ~$49 million

Factoring in Foyle's buyout ($6.9 million), Anthony Randolph's rookie contract, and Richard Hendrix's minimum salary, the Warriors have roughly $9 million under the cap to play with. Keep in mind, Monta, Biedrins, and Azubuike can all be signed regardless of the cap. Once that trio is signed, the Warriors will be just under lux tax.

So what to do with that $9 million? That amount won't bring in a solid PG, but it does help in making trades for one. At this time, only max deals can pry the FAs such as Smith and Iggy out from their respective teams.

Comment starter: You're Chris Mullin with $9 million. Whosit gonna be?

UPDATE: The Warriors reportedly offering Ronny Turiaf $17 million over 4 years. Well, that slices down the $9 million to about $5 million to play with. And we still don't have a point-guard.

Au Revoir et Bonne Chance!

As of today, Mickael Pietrus is a full-fledged member of the Sanctuary for Outcast Warriors, otherwise known as the Orlando Magic.


Details of the deal are not yet confirmed, but he's reportedly getting most of the mid-level exception and a 3-year contract with a player option for the fourth. It's a bit much for what we've seen of him, but he's not a bad fit for the Magic. According to Janny Hu, Pietrus will get the chance to compete for the starting off-guard position, which suits him better than the PF spot Nellie asked him to play here. His rebounding numbers (2007-2008: 3.7/game, 6.6/36 minutes) are good if he plays as the 2-guard.

Pietrus' leaving doesn't mean much for the Warriors, other than his cap hold of $6.9 million coming off the books. I'd surmise that the Warriors pushed offers for Brand assuming Pietrus would be gone. The PR department does have to find a new poster boy for Valentine's Day adverts, though.

Overall, thanks for the laughs, Monsieur Pietrus!

Maggette and Brand and Smith! Oh My!

If I sat behind Mullin's desk in this time of post-Davis turmoil:

1. Lock up Monta and Biedrins. These next few years should be retooling, not rebuilding, seasons, as we have two solid young starters to match incoming players with.

2. Shop Harrington. Preferably for Javaris Crittenton, who will receive more playing time with the Warriors rather than splitting PG duties with the entirety of the Grizzlies' roster. The Grizzlies would have to throw in a couple players to make the salaries work, but the focus of the swap would be very beneficial for the Warriors.

Or, if the Warriors don't want to deal Harrington, he will be an attractive expiring contract after the 08-09 season. Not to mention another $9 million of cap space to play with.

3. Along the same lines, call up Shaun Livingston. The Clippers probably won't offer him a contract since he's coming off of that horrible injury, so the Warriors could have him for cheap. Low-risk, high-reward.

4. Don't break the bank by offering max deals. Again, we're only in a retooling season, so it doesn't make sense sacrificing cap flexibility for just one player. Down the road, cap space will be even more important as Biedrins, Monta, and Wright would be in their primes and in need of only a few complementary players.

My skeletal vision for this season's roster:

PG: Jaric/Crittenton/Livingston
SG: Ellis/Belinelli
SF: Jackson/Randolph
PF: Wright/Warrick/Hendrix
C: Biedrins/Perovic

Kelenna Azubuike Opts Out

Not unexpected, as he played his way to a larger contract. He's an RFA, meaning that the Warriors can match any offer given by another team. Most, if not all, teams are pushing luxury tax this offseason, so the most I expect Azubuike to receive is a $1-2 million chunk of the MLE. He and his agent most likely will ask for $3 million per season, but with the extensions for Monta and Andris and the rookie contracts for two draft picks already pushing lux tax, the Warriors can't finagle that amount. That said, the Warriors will figure out a way to keep Azubuike on the team.

Get Some Coors Out of Your Fridge

Nellie's back!

Mo' Money Mo' Speights

What the Warriors need address during the offseason:

• rebounding, obviously
  
• backup point guard
• swingman

This year's draft class is weaker than last, especially outside the top 10. Even though the Warriors pick 14th, there is one player that can fill the void--Marreese Speights--who happens to fall right into the no man's land of the draft.



Speights, a legit 6'10 F/C out of Florida, has a developed body coupled with a long wingspan. Although he is still quite raw, which seems to be the theme of the draft, he was a highly productive player in college and has considerable upside. Two aspects of his game that would put him into Nellie's good books are his inside-outside game and his jumper.

How would he help the Warriors?

His wingspan lengthens the already stretchy frontcourt of Biedrins and Wright. The Warriors' big men aren't going to push anyone around anytime soon, so length will be the main focus to match the Lakers' Odom/Gasol/Bynum and frustrate the likes of Boozer and Duncan.

His jumper, as mentioned earlier, stretches the defense and allows Nellie to draw up some gimmick plays. If Wright can hone his jumper, imagine how difficult it would be for opposing teams to defend five players who can all stretch the floor. I realize that's putting conditional on conditional (if Wright actually plays, if Speights actually plays, if Wright and Speights actually play together), but it's nice to think about.

Additional links:
HoopsWorld: Pree explains Speights and the Warriors' other draft needs in a much more eloquent fashion than I do.
Draft Express
YouTube: Grainy and short, but displays Speights' athleticism

Buh-Bye Baron?

From Inside Bay Area:

A source close to Davis said it's now a 50-50 chance that the Warriors' captain, coming off a season in which he averaged 21.8 points, 7.6 assists and 4.7 rebounds, will not remain beyond next season after various contract offers that were so low as to be practically hurtful.

In short, it's no big deal. The whole issue is nothing but expected posturing by Todd Ramasar, Baron's agent, to maximize Baron's leverage.

A couple of notes:

• No team in the league can afford to take on $17.8 million next season, let alone any amount greater than that.
• Mullin's job is to make sure that the Warriors receive good value for signing a player. At some point, talent doesn't justify the amount of money spent.
• Baron played an 82-game season for the first time since 2001-2002. Just because he stayed healthy and played well for the majority of the time, doesn't mean that he will do so again. It's especially doubtful considering he'll turn 30 and the eternally dubious condition of his legs.
• If Baron indeed decides to opt out, the Warriors will have $28 million under the payroll to play with. That's plenty of room to resign both Biedrins and Monta and go after virtually anyone on the free-agent market. Which is 1000 times superior to last season's market. Just look at the list of potential free-agents:

  Josh Childress, Josh Smith, Emeka Okafor, Luol Deng, JR Smith, Elton Brand, Corey Maggette, Shawn Marion, Stromile Swift, Andre Iguodala, Jose Calderon, Jamario Moon, Antawn Jamison, Gilbert Arenas.

• Don't forget about that $10 million TPE from the Richardson trade. It expires on draft day, but the Warriors could still use it to bring in a player without paying.
  

Close, But No Cigar

And so ends the the Warriors' 2007-2008 season. It wasn't the way the team or the fans wanted it to turn out, but so goes the nature of the West. In the meantime, we have 6 months, instead of 5 1/2 months, to mull over contract extensions, draft picks, and free agents.

I'm taking a page out of Janny Hu's book and breaking down the scenarios for each Warrior (with some contract help via the Warriors forum on scout.com).

Kelenna Azubuike
Status: Restricted free agent
Contract: $2.0 - $2.3 million (projected)
Comments: Azubuike said that he will opt out this summer. He's played well enough to attract interest for teams who need a rebounding swingman off the bench and will pay part of the mid-level exception.

Matt Barnes
Status: Unrestricted free agent
Contract: $1.0 - $2.0 million (projected)
Comments: Barnes is a one-hit wonder, apparently. The Warriors probably won't try too hard to re-sign him, nor will he generate much interest from other teams.

Marco Belinelli
Status: Signed through 08-09; team options for 09-10 and 10-11
Contract: $1,446,720
Comments: Belinelli turned some heads with a string of good performances at the end of the season. His shot looks on-line again, especially compared to the beginning of the season when he couldn't hit the ocean. He still needs to improve on defense, however.

Andris Biedrins
Status: Restricted free agent
Contract: $9.0 million (projected)
Comments: Mullin declared Biedrins and Monta off-limits a couple of days ago, so that lessens any chance that other teams will lure him away. Hammering out an extension will be one of the top priorities this offseason.

Austin Croshere
Status: Unrestricted free agent
Contract: ?
Comments: I cannot find the terms of Croshere's 07-08 contract, so I'll hold off on projecting his value. His injuries won't help with any potential deals, though.

Baron Davis
Status: Player option for 08-09 season; can opt out
Contract: $17,180,000
Comments: No team in the NBA can afford to pay more than $17 million (even $17 million) if Baron decides to opt out. The present market will probably keep Baron in Oakland, but it's highly unlikely that Mullin will grant him the extension he wants. Baron has enormous trade value, so I'm guessing that Mullin will quietly call around for offers.

Monta Ellis
Status: Restricted free agent
Contract $9.0 million (projected)
Comments: Memphis and Philedelphia have shown interest in Monta, but Mullin already stated that he will not take offers. Again, working out an extension is a top priority.

Al Harrington
Status: Signed through 09-10
Contract: $9,226,250
Comments: Al had a rough year, despite dropping ten pounds last offseason. Mullin would have a difficult time if he wants to trade Al due to the large contract.

Stephen Jackson
Status: Signed through 09-10
Contract: $7,140,000
Comments: Mullin probably will hardball Jackson if he chooses to pursue a contract extension.

Patrick O'Bryant
Status: Unrestricted free agent
Contract: $2.0 million (projected)
Comments: O'Bryant most likely will not return, considering the wall between him and Nelson. It's too bad, because he showed flashes of being a serviceable center.

Kosta Perovic
Status: Signed through 08-09; teams options for 09-10 and 10-11
Contract: $1,800,000
Comments: The $5.0 million contract is a bit of a setback for the Warriors financially, especially since it hinders their ability to sign free agents.

Mickael Pietrus
Status: Unrestricted free agent
Contract: $3.0 - $4.0 million (projected)
Comments: Pietrus now says that he wants to stay with the Warriors, but I hope he doesn't expect a contract significantly larger than the one he received last summer. Perhaps Miami will give him part of the MLE?

CJ Watson
Status: Unrestricted free agent
Contract: NBA minimum (projected)
Comments: He hasn't played enough to generate much interest from other teams.

Brandan Wright
Status: Signed through 08-09; team options for 09-10 and 10-11
Contract: $2,497,320
Comments: Three words- keep this kid. The Warriors have two young big men capable of contending with the towers of the West in the near future.

Finite

This is your last game, boys. Make the most of it.

The Stretch Run 2

Remember when the Warriors were the 8 seed and up two games on Denver a month ago? It's funny how things change.

7. Dallas 6.5
8. Denver 7.0
9. Golden State 7.5

Yeeeaaah.

As a fan, I hate the talent disparity between the Eastern and Western Conferences. A full 22.5 games separate the first and eighth seeds in the East, while a mere 7.0 games divide the West. However, the Warriors can take advantage of the tight playoff race and leapfrog over Denver or Dallas. Unfortunately, the Warriors ceded the ability to control their own destiny with a loss to Denver a week ago, so they'll also need to cross their fingers.

Even if the Warriors spin off a 6-game win streak (which would equal their season-high streak from November 24-December 2, 2007), either Dallas or Denver must drop two of their final games. A 6-game win streak is improbable, but Dallas/Denver have slightly tougher schedules and can realistically lose a couple games.

What the Warriors cannot do is:

1. Give away games against sub-.500 teams. Namely Sacramento, the other LA team, and Seattle.
2. Get lazy and play fly-swatter defense instead of moving their feet.
3. Not get back on defense. See the game at Dallas, for example.
4. Play isolation offense. Also refer to the Dallas game, when the Warriors had 10 total assists.
5. Give up. There is no sense in conceding defeat in what is essentially a 6-game season.

[Update 9:20 PM] The Kings come up HUGE and hold off Denver for a 118-115 win. Remember last season's heroics against the Clippers? Yeah, we owe Sacramento big time (just not any time in the near future).

[Update 4:12 PM] The Warriors lose to the Hornets. The Mavericks officially clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Suns (thanks to a 9-point fourth quarter from the Suns), so now the race is down to Golden State and Denver. Denver plays Seattle tonight

Friction Between Big 3 and Bench?

Interesting blog post by Janny Hu over at SFGate. When she interviewed Jackson after tonight's let down, he commented on the lack of bench contribution.

"We got to get somebody that you don't expect to show up to show up some nights...We need somebody on the bench to get us going, to help us these last couple of games."

We've seen this problem throughout the entire season. Harrington's been spotty. Azubuike faded from his strong performances at the beginning of the season. Barnes looks like a one-hit wonder (the Portland game notwithstanding). I don't remember any Warrior personnel, except Nellie, publicly critiquing the bench this season, so maybe Jackson's comments might help a bit.

Okay, here's the interesting bit about Pietrus and his injury:

"Hopefully he sucks it up and comes back and thinks about the team and fights the injury a little for us. But at the same time, we got to go with what we got, and I feel confident enough that we can get the job done."

Does anyone get a weird vibe from this? I think Janny detects something, since she adds that Pietrus' injury isn't helping "his standing with his teammates."

The Warriors seem too much of a chummy, one-for-all brotherhood for a locker room divide like this, so maybe they just want Pietrus to hurry up and start contributing again and Jackson just got his words garbled a bit. I hope there isn't any actual tension, since the Warriors already have a tall order of winning back the 8 seed.


Note: I originally posted this at GSoM.

Dub-ya Tee Eff Just Happened Here?

Stephen Jackson, that's what.


Golden State 115 - 111 LA Lakers

A French Moustache? More Like a Bay Area Beard

Thanks FTB and Reverse

Hop on over to Fear the Beard and check out their interview about Boom Dizzle with the French basketball magazine Reverse.

If you took French at any point of your life, then congratulations, you can read the article. If not, you’ll have to rely on amateurs like me.

Here’s the commentaire I wrote on FTB:

First paragraph: Since 2005, he controls the Golden State Warriors as a baron runs his fief. He is the undisputed leader of a franchise in renewal. Baron Davis commands respect in all things. Music, politics or cinema: the Californian leader is also comfortable with the counter-attack.

Second paragraph: Baron’s game-winner against Boston (the counter-attack?).

Bottom of second paragraph: Do you believe in the Warriors now? Since the playoffs passed, nobody doubts anyway. The key to this revival? The point guard made in California, the renegade of the New Orleans Hornets in 2005, and one of the unmistakable leaders and representatives of the NBA.

Last paragraph: And then a little bit about his life in LA and UCLA.

The Stretch Run

After dusting off the Atlanta Hawks 135-118, the Warriors look to extend their winning streak tonight against Jason Richardson and the Charlotte Bobcats. The Warriors cannot afford to drop any of this type of game, seeing as the Western Conference is tighter than Mr. Comiskey's wallet. The standings, through 3/5:

1. * San Antonio --
2. * LA Lakers --
3. New Orleans 2.0
4. * Utah 4.0
5. Phoenix 2.5
6. Houston 3.0
7. Dallas 4.0
8. Golden State 5.0
9. Denver 7.0
10. Portland 12.0

Precarious, no?

---
All right, here we go. The Warriors just lost to the Charlotte Bobcats (see: losing the night after notching a good win), but I won’t go into that. All I can say is, losing to the Bobcats certainly isn’t going to help the Warriors in the playoff standings tonight, as Houston is 46 seconds away from a blowout win, Denver is leading Phoenix through the 3rd, and Utah is on cruise control against the Wolves. The Denver/Phoenix situation is bi-faceted in that Denver will move up and Phoenix will move down, so take your pick.

I’ve broken down the Warriors’ remaining 22 games into three categories. If it starts to look like college admissions, then yeah, that is the analogy I am trying to make.

Reach (6): @ LA Lakers, LA Lakers, Dallas, @ San Antonio, @ Dallas, @ New Orleans
Target (9): @ Miami, @ Orlando, Toronto, @ Phoenix, Houston, Portland, @ Denver, Denver, @ Phoenix
Safety (7): Memphis, @ Sacramento, @ LA Clippers, @ Memphis, Sacramento, LA Clippers, Seattle

Winnable games are in blue, push games in orange, probable losses in plain text.

"Should" schedule: 12-4-6
"Should" record: 49-29 (+4 push games)

Of course, this chart is what “should” happen if we are talking about a normal team, but the Warriors MO is this: play to the level of competition. My guess is that we blow a couple games but win a few we don’t deserve. In any case, the Western Conference will be a thrilling competition for the last month and a half.

Questions: Will this be good enough to sneak into the Western playoffs?

Burning Question

Fact: The Warriors beat the Celtics on Wednesday night.
Fact: The Warriors lost to the Hawks on Friday night.

Question: Why/How do the Warriors play to the level of their competition?