Monday Tidbits

• The Giants made their first cuts today: Ramon Ortiz, Ronnie Ray, Pat Misch, Todd Jennings, and Josh Phelps are all moving down to minor-league camp. Ortiz is no surprise, given his completely abysmal outings. Notably, Phelps' reassigment may indicate the Giants' confidence in Travis Ishikawa as a full-time player, as Phelps would have been Ishikawa's platoon partner at 1B. Rich Aurilia is still a possibility at first, but Ishikawa will most likely get more at-bats against lefties this spring rather than sitting out.

• Fangraphs: now with 100% more ZiPS!

• And $31.3 million later, San Francisco's finest double-agent finally takes the mound for the Dodgers.
  

Breaking Down the Bullpen

One of the bullet points that headed the Giants’ proverbial offseason to-do list was to improve the bullpen, especially middle relief. Thankfully, they signed Jeremy Affeldt and Bob Howry to set up Brian Wilson, but there are still four spots available, making the ‘pen one of the more interesting spring training battles to watch.

We know that the three late inning guys don’t have much to worry about in terms of their roles, but everything is up in the air for the rest of the pitchers.

List of pitchers who have a chance of earning a spot:

Alex Hinshaw
Osiris Matos
Luis Perdomo
Kelvin Pichardo
Sergio Romo
Billy Sadler
Jack Taschner
Merkin Valdez
Justin Miller
Brandon Medders
Keiichi Yabu
Ramon Ortiz

A few disclaimers before we move on: Pichardo and Yabu were optioned down to AAA today, and Romo is sidelined for at least another week with an elbow sprain. Ortiz, whom the Giants signed from the Orix Blue Wave in Japan, has not impressed at all. Hinshaw and Taschner have been erratic so far, and Valdez is still recovering from his offseason surgery and hasn’t thrown off a mound yet.

Considering Romo’s successful bullpen stint in 2008, he was probably next in line for a spot this season. Now that he’s out for a while, this opens up the competition for the remaining pitchers. NRI Justin Miller has a good chance of winning that spot, as CHONE’s predictions make him one of the Giants’ top-tier relievers this season. Additionally, he has some control, something that most of the bullpen lacks. If Rule 5 draftee Perdomo continues his nice outings for the rest of spring, he’ll earn a spot on the 25-man roster as will. Matos also has a good chance considering a clean couple of spring outings and a decent performance in 2008 as a call-up from AA, but he still has an option and would be better off pitching in AAA.

So, my Opening Day bullpen lineup:

Wilson
Affeldt
Howry
Romo (I’m banking on his coming back)
Miller
Hinshaw (You could put Sadler here, seeing as he’s a hard thrower with no control, too)
Perdomo

Bring up Yabu in the event that Hinshaw or Perdomo implodes.

---

Update: I forgot to mention that the Giants released Dave Roberts so that, according to Sabean, they can take longer looks at Nate Schierholtz and Eugenio Velez. Plus, since he's been released this early in spring, Roberts has a chance to join another club. The Giants will have to eat the $6.5 million he would have made this season.

I thought Roberts was a cool and likeable guy, and he was effective when he wasn't battling injuries like he was the majority of last season, but it was clear that he didn't really have a place on the team anymore. I hope he gets picked up by another team.

In more exciting news, Merkin Valdez is available to pitch on Friday! He's not going to look as sharp as he was when he started in place of Lincecum in that funky rain-delayed game last season, but here's hoping he's recovered fully from his surgeries. If he pitches well, I'm going to have to shuffle my predictions a bit.

Manny is a Dodger Again

Thank God it's over. Now we can get back to baseball.

To Be in Arizona

The game begins in the spring, when everything else begins again. - A. Bartlett Giamatti

Thoughts from the first two days of spring training:

• No talks for a long-term deal for Tim Lincecum as of yet. He cannot pursue free agency until after 2013, but a contract similar to what Matt Cain and Noah Lowry signed a couple springs ago would be mutually beneficial for him and the Giants. One, the Giants have, as Andy Baggarly states it, "cost certainty" with him; two, Tim could sign for an even bigger contract at the end of this proposed one; and three, his salary is guaranteed if (God forbid) he gets injured.

• Henry Schulman writes that Fred Lewis reported to camp fifteen pounds heavier in muscle. From this photo taken by Giantfan9 (don't forget, Giants Jottings is back up for spring training), it does look like he's heavier in the quad area. Excuse my irrational spring training optimism, but couple Lewis' extra muscle and recovery from his bunion surgery, he could very well hit 20 HR's this season (though all the projection systems have knocked him for last season's unsustainable .367 BABIP and predicted only 9-10 HR's for him).

• Speaking of power, guess who's leading the Giants in spring training HR's? Buster Posey. He hit four today, including one to right field, giving him a total of six to date. It's hard not to be excited when you could have this guy in the majors sometime this season.

• Something interesting to note: Giantfan9 reports that Pablo Sandoval isn't working out with the catchers, which means he'll most likely be working the corners once full squad training begins. His playing 1B/3B will get him more AB's than if he only played catcher. However, Sandoval's offense and glovework make him more valuable at catcher. We'll see how this goes over the course of the spring.
  

Fanfest!

It's officially one week before hope springs eternal again. If you're one of those unlucky souls who couldn't go to Fanfest today, tune into knbr.com to listen to all the interviews. Some of my friends have promised to take pictures of the event, so look for those to go up sometime tonight or tomorrow.

TGIF

Nothing like a 2 1/2 month leave and an accidental Flickr purge to make you miss writing for an old blog that is more like a stream-of-consciousness outlet. I think it was the Flickr purge that did it, though, seeing as I don't have the monies to pony up for a pro account and had to delete the original TFRJ banner to clear up space.

In those weeks...
...everything the Giants did was (OMGZ!) logical and reasonable. No mortgaging the future on Manny Ramirez. No trading away Jonathan Sanchez. Shoring up the bullpen by inking Affeldt and Howry to short-term deals, and doing the same with Renteria and Phelps. Now, having Uribe as backup SS/3B, the roster as currently constructed is probably what we're going to get come Opening Day. Though the team is still lacking in the power department, the Giants should feasibly hit more than last season's total of 94 home runs, especially with full seasons from Sandoval, Ishikawa, Frandsen, and Lewis.

...the Sharks have become the Bay Area's darling (read: winning) franchise. Much of their success has come McClellan's new puck possession, shot-on-goal philosophy: the Sharks' blueline has greatly improved from its 2007-08 predecessors, thanks to the acquisitions of Boyle, Blake, and Lukowich. Though they hit a rough patch in the beginning of January, their play has trended back up as of late, and even Alexei Semenov has started to notch some points.

...the 49ers, after 8 OC candidates, finally settl on Jimmy Raye. Probably the best aspect that Raye offers is his extensive experience in the NFL. Probably the worst thing is that after that buzz around Linehan, Raye isn't anyone I'm too familiar with, but Singletary knows what's best for the 49ers.

...the Warriors have regressed mightily from the 2007-08 season. Part of it hinges on the injury bug that has taken a liking to nearly every player in Nellie's rotation. The other part is the lack of defense that Nellie's running game perpetuates. On average, the Warriors give up a -4.8 point differential and a 46.6% opponent FG%, but to their credit, their W-L record should be 16-30 rather than 14-32, a result of several buzzer-beater losses. The team should benefit as Monta Ellis comes back to full speed (pun partially intended).

All in all, it's good to be back

Tim Lincecum, Cy Young Winner

*cue 1812 Overture*

Will the Warriors Shoot More Efficiently?

I forgot to mention earlier about Golden Stat Hoops, a new Warriors blog with a statistical emphasis. It's a timely blog in light of the fact that basketball has started trending away from boxscore stats like FG% to more telling metrics.

GSH's first post examines a problem that has plagued the Warriors for a couple years -- scoring efficiency -- using eFG% (efficient field goal percentage) and TS% (true shooting percentage) to predict if the team's efficiency will improve this season. I found it a great and informative read, especially since FG% and PPG are too limited to do an effective shooter (or otherwise) justice.

A Banner Start to the Offseason

Remember when Sabean accidentally DFA'd Sergio Romo?

He slipped up again, except this time it wasn't Romo and not so accidental. According to Paul DePodesta, the Giants removed Travis Denker from the 40-man roster and the Padres picked him up for free.

Cue obligatory "what was Sabean thinking?" picture.

First, let me quickly address the other victims of what OGC calls "the purge of the 40-man roster."

• Tyler Walker: Good guy, but expendable in light of Romo's success.
• Kevin Correia: Will probably be sent back to the bullpen once Lowry returns, unless he is signed by another team as a free agent.
  
• Brad Hennessey: Ditto.
• Eliezer Alfonzo: Expendable, thanks to Sandoval and Posey coming down (up?) the pipes.
• Geno Espinelli: He looked okay in the bigs, though he could use more time in the minors to improve his stuff.
• Scott McClain: The Giants will probably renew his contract.
  
• Ivan Ochoa: Should have been Vizquel's replacement instead of Bocock. He did a fine job defensively and didn't look lost at the plate.

Only problem I have is if Lowry goes down again (which is likely considering the number of setbacks he faced during the season), the Giants don't have a clear backup starter. Pat Misch?

I won't lose sleep over the fact that Denker is gone. What is befuddling is the lack of any benefit for the Giants from dropping Denker.

The Giants dumped a middle infielder who wasn't an outstanding prospect, but who did show signs of being a capable major league player. His MLE's (243/.332/.381) are below average, even for a second baseman, but all he did during his short stint as a Giant was show patience at the plate and hit for power. Denker might well turn out to be a AAAA player, and even so, he still has more value than the remaining 2B's and seven empty roster spots.

So where's the benefit? If the Giants had a legit 2B waiting in the minors, then I have no problem with dropping Denker from the team. But they don't. Instead of strengthening an organizational weakness, this move is just another item in Sabean's laundry list of personnel mistakes. If the dumping of Travis Denker is the start of the offseason, I'm not exactly confident in the moves-to-come during the rest of the winter.

Bill Neukom Speaks

Bill Neukom held his first press conference as the Giants' new managing partner a few days ago and outlined his thoughts on the direction of the franchise. Considering he now parks his car in Peter Magowan's former space, it's a good idea to take a look at what he has to say.

Andy Baggarly (of course) has already transcribed the entire conference, including a few individual questions, here.

Below are my thoughts on some snippets I found interesting:

And how we’re going to do that is by emphasizing and investing even more in homegrown talent. We have to find the best baseball athletes we can find, through better scouting and better analysis of the amateur draft.

Though the draft is a given no-brainer as a fundamental part of a successful franchise, it's refreshing to hear Neukom clearly deem it as the primary focus for the 2009 season and beyond. Free agent signings have been the Giants' modus operandi since 2000 up until two years ago, when they concluded what was hailed as a strong draft. The string of good scouting and drafting, including signing international players, should continue under Neukom's direction.

We want to bring those people along in a way that enables them to convert their gifts into major league skills and we think we’ll have maybe a little more time and a little more discretion. Some of the people who came up this year, frankly, came up sooner than might have been perfect if we’d had a deeper system. It somewhat accelerated things in 2008 and we hope we can get to more of a sort of modulated progression.

The Giants promised a youth movement in the beginning of the 2008 season, and they sure did deliver on their word. A total of 16 rookies made their first debut, although some of them might have benefited from more time in the minor leagues. The Giants entered the season without any defined plan, but the "throw-stuff-at-the-wall-and-see-what-sticks" philosophy worked out better than I expected, thanks to the emergence of Burriss, Romo, Sandoval, and Hinshaw. Once the franchise decides the areas that need the most improvement, call-ups shouldn't be as haphazard.

We have asked Brian and his group to look broadly at the question of the roster for 2009 and beyond. That means primary emphasis on homegrown talent, (determining) how much of this young talent can we expect to produce on a sustainable basis during a championship season next year, whether we need to complement it with a trade, or fold those risks and expenses with a free agent signing.

More emphasis about building from the inside out.

We said to Brian and to Bruce Bochy, 'Look, don’t be constrained by a placeholder number for player payroll right now. Think of this in terms of how you’re going to assemble a roster that’s going to be competitive in ‘09 and come back to us.'

Here's the crux of Neukom's plan: first assemble the best team possible for the long-run, and then worry about finances. The "placeholder" is a rough assessment of the cost to field a contending team, but the front office can overspend on a player (or players) if it believes that is the right move in the long-run.

When it comes to picking the talent, we need the sharpest baseball eyes: people who can pick the 16-year-old arm out of the cornfield. We also need to be very well informed with all that is at our fingertips. We need to be smart about that. It’ll be a blend.

Yay! Scouting is no good without statistical analysis, and vice versa. Neukom hits the nail on the head with his suggestion of a blend of both baseball eyes and SABR. Time to upgrade that GVSORP^TM (Gritty Veteran Savvy Over Replacement Player) to OPS+ and FIP.

How about bringing in the fences?
(Pause) It’s not a concept we’re currently considering. I think it’s a very exciting ballpark.

Heh, I couldn't have said it any better. One, the Giants have a flyball pitching staff, and two, the other team can hit home runs too. Unless the field crew moves the fences in and out every half inning.

NLCS Game Two

I'm officially done with SAT classes and the SAT for now, or at least until I get my scores back and find out I have to re-take it, so that means a renewal of blog updates!

I'm watching the game right now on MLB.com's four camera angled coverage, and let me say right now, I love the Phillies. Even if Shane Victorino is on the team.

Not Dead Yet

Ed. Note: Just checking in after a sweep of the Diamondbacks. Actual posts to resume sometime around September 27 or around that weekend.

---

What were the odds that Brian Wilson would blow back-to-back save chances and Velez would bail him with game-winning hits?

One thing's for sure: the Giants, even in their present state, sure know how to play spoiler. I'll ignore the fact about the Dodgers sitting pretty in first place, because the Giants have the chance to spoil their hopes in the following weeks.

A Bit of Site News

It's this time of the year again, when summer ends and school begins. Bummer. So, posts will be sporadic, probably even more so as it's junior year. Hopefully I can pick up again about mid-September, when my weekends aren't inundated with various SAT classes.

Slider versus Atlanta Braves

Inning	Batter	Velocity	Result
1	G. Blanco	80	Ball
1	Y. Escobar	82	Called strike
1	Y. Escobar	82	Called strike
1	Y. Escobar	81	Groundout to 1B
2	C. Sammons	84	Ball in dirt
2	C. Sammons	85	Swinging strike, K
3	G. Blanco	83	Foul
5	C. Sammons	83	Swinging strike, K
6	C. Jones	84	Swinging strike, K
7	K. Johnson	83	Ball
8	G. Norton	82	Ball
8	Y. Escobar	86	Ball

Just When it Couldn't Get Any Better

Zito's implosion notwithstanding, yesterday was quite exciting, given the tenor of the season. Rohlinger started at third -- becoming the 13th rookie to make his debut this season and tying the 1996 team for the most in history -- and promptly airmailed a throw to Rich Aurilia. Rookie nerves. After walking back to the dugout twice after facing Randy Wolf, Rohlinger hit an 0-2 pitch for his first major league hit and RBI. All three rookies play this afternoon, so keep an eye on their performance.

If you thought yesterday was big news, today's gets even bigger. The Giants are on the cusp of signing Buster Posey to a major league contract worth $7.5 million. This is great news, as earlier reports had Posey's signing coming down to the last hour on Friday.

Additionally, third-rounder Roger Kieschnick signed for $525,000 and fourth-rounder Brandon Crawford signed for $375,000. There was some doubt shrouding Crawford's signing as he could have opted to return to UCLA to raise his stock. I wrote this bit about him after the first draft day:

As a pull hitter, he has power, but he's lost confidence this year because of a rough Cape Cod season. When he's on though, he regularly drives balls and has a solid arm in the hole.

Good to see him decide to sign with the Giants.

Another notable signee is Juan Carlos Perez, a 13th round CF. Troubles with his visa caused him to drop to the 13th round, so he is more talented than his slot suggests. The Giants are taking a small risk by signing him, especially if he is not eligible to play, but they gave him a contract for 2009 in hopes that he sorts out his visa issues.

Remember all the hype surrounding whom the Giants picked that sunny June day? The Giants have lived up to it by signing most of their draft picks, and nearly all of the important ones.

Rift in Space-Time Continuum

BREAKING NEWS: Reported by Andy Baggarly, Brian Sabean has made a smart, beneficial roster change. As of now, the Giants have a brand spanking new infield.

*drumroll*

Welcome, Ryan Rohlinger!

Rohlinger comes up from Double-A Connecticut and will take over third base. The Giants face a sore dearth of players at third base, so if plays well in his time up in the big leagues, that will be one less position that Sabean has to worry about over the winter.

Welcome, Travis Ishikawa!

Ishikawa received his first cup of coffee in 2006 and consequently struggled and found himself in Single-A. This season, the Giants promoted him from Double-A to Triple-A. He tore the heck out of the ball once he arrived in Fresno, hitting .316 and 7 home runs in just the first eight games in August, bringing his total to 16.

Welcome, Pablo Sandoval!

Sandoval, who comes up with Rohlinger from Connecticut, is probably the most exciting call-up thus far. He absolutely crushed the ball since his promotion to Double-A, hitting .337/.364/.549 with 8 home runs.

Of course, what comes up, must come down. With these three promotions, the Giants cleared roster space by DFA'ing Jose Castillo and sending down Steve Holm and John Bowker. Rohlinger will take Castillo's spot at third, Ishikawa will play at first, and Sandoval will split time between catching and first base.

Comment starter: New lineup. Whats'it look like?

Here's some help (from SFGiants.com)-

Rohlinger was pressed into service immediately, penciled into Wednesday night’s lineup at third base and hitting second. He would become the 13th rookie to make his Major League debut this season, equaling the most in a year since the franchise moved to San Francisco in 1958. The 1996 club also featured 13 debuting rookies.

Oh No

No. No. No. Bad dream. No.

Update: Looks like Lincecum will be all right. From Baggarly's post-

He’s OK, according to his agent, and expects to make his next start. The liner hit him on the tibia just below the knee. Bad bruise. You may breathe normally now.

Even if his knee is fine, I hope the Giants skip his next start anyway. The Giants have nothing to play for this season. Better to miss one start by design than to run him out there and have him miss the next three.

Tuesday Links

- Andy Baggarly had a chance to talk to Fred Stanley, one of the Giants' roving minor league instructors, who updated him about some notable names in the farm system.

Of note: Stanley envisions that Nick Noonan could skip straight to Double-A. Noonan surpassed expectations this year at Low-A by posting a .283 average. If all goes well, Noonan conceivably could be up in the big leagues by 2010.

Tim Alderson and Madison Bumgarner are impressing at San Jose and Augusta, respectively. Baggarly added a comment that he's heard from several people that if Alderson could add a couple more ticks on his fastball, he would have Kevin Brown stuff. Speed is nice, but it's just gravy with exceptional command. If he can locate his pitches, which he can, then he doesn't need to throw 95-mph every time out.

As for Bumgarner, a quotation from BP's Kevin Goldstein will suffice:

He's not only the best prospect in the Giants system, but rates as one of the best pitching prospects in all of baseball.

- Chris at Bay City Ball applies WAR (Wins Above Replacement) to the Giants' starting rotation. Lincecum, Cain, and Sanchez make up one of the best young, talented, and cheap trios in the majors; the sum of their actual salaries only totals to $1.5 million, while $WAR values their performances at a total of $48.93.

Overall, the net value of the starting rotation is $33.67 million -- pretty good considering the value sinkhole that is Barry Zito.

- Not exactly related to Giants baseball, but an interesting article by Mark Purdy about Olympic softball, nonetheless. As you might know, this is the last year in which baseball and softball will be played in the Olympics. The IOC voted to scratch the two off the program for the 2012 London Olympics because the cost for building baseball/softball specific venues became too expensive.

Something to think about: if the games make a return in 2016, starting pitcher Jennie Finch will be 35, and Monica Abbott will be 31. Even more frightening: the last game to be eliminated from the Olympics was polo, in 1936. Have you seen guys with mallets riding horses since? Neither have I.

- Tim Lincecum versus Roy Oswalt tonight. I, for one, am excited.

Walkoff x2

If the Dodgers miss the playoffs by one game, I think they'll look back at this game and wonder why they couldn't turn a 4-6-3 double play.

Rivalry Weekend

Pitching match-ups for rivalry weekend:

Brad Penny (5-9, 5.88 ERA) v. Barry Zito (6-13, 5.40 ERA)
Hiroki Kuroda (6-8, 4.21 ERA) v. Kevin Correia (2-6, 5.53 ERA)
Chad Billingsley (11-9, 3.01 ERA) v. Matt Cain (7-9, 3.60 ERA)

Fitting match-ups, eh?

Zito hopes to continue his streak of good outings while this will be Penny's first start since June.

The Giants seemed to have figured out Kuroda last time in LA--all 7 runs came off hits. This time, Kuroda and Correia are both coming off decent starts. Hopefully Correia can return to his late-2007 form and get the win.

And lastly, Sunday features the showcase match-up of the weekend, Billingsley versus Cain. It will be a fun one to watch, especially if you like pitching duels between two guys with overpowering stuff. Disclaimer: Billingsley pitched his first career shutout against the Giants the last time out.

The big question is not if the Giants can score more than one run for Cain on Sunday, but if 25 returns to Mays Field for the outfielders' reunion. If he does come, odds are that we won't know about it until he's on the field.

---

OT comment starter: Excited for the Olympics? Y/Y?