Monday, February 25, 2008

Finding the Swagger: On Second Base?



There are so many ways (appropriate and NC-17) of interpreting this picture, but if you asked me who will win the starting 2B job based on the photo, then I place my bet on Frandsen.

Actual analysis later.
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  • Mendoza lining: After batting a career best of .293/.360/.538 with 26 home runs in 2007, Durham came crashing down to .218/.295/.343. He could not capitalize on his early role as cleanup hitter and his offensive struggles clearly affected his defense. When Durham came to Spring Training, he reported that he could not find any flaws in his swing, except for dropping his hands too far. People observed that he had trouble driving balls on the fringe and inside of the plate, which would account for his 43% groundball percentage. Law of averages: It is not abnormal to see mediocre batting lines after a contract-career season. Neither is a career average year following an abysmal year. Durham is a career .280 hitter, so I expect Bochy to give him the majority of starts early on to gauge his trade value – assuming he returns to average lines – or relegate him in favor of Frandsen.

  • Cup o’ Coffee: In August, Frandsen had a particularly difficult time at the plate. He was unable to drive the ball and the majority of his non-hits were sharp grounders or double-play balls. Frandsen got some help from Barry Bonds, who gave him pointers and threw batting practice for Frandsen. It worked. Frandsen ripped off a hot September, batting .370/.427/.479 in the month alone, which isn’t too surprising since he hit .327 in the minors while playing everyday. He also looked more comfortable playing defense while the season wound down. It’s that kind of performance that made 2B a competition this season and will land him some regular playing time (relative to last season’s uncertainty). For the sake of the Giants’ future, I hope he wins the 2B job outright, even just to see if he can sustain decent numbers at the big-league level.

Conclusion: Knowing Bochy and Sabean’s system, and as I stated above, Durham will probably start for the first few weeks and then give way to Frandsen, unless Frandsen pulls off an incredible Spring Training.

Question: Do you think Frandsen can put up decent numbers as a starter? For starters, here’s Bill James’ prediction: .282/.330/.407.

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