Will the Warriors Shoot More Efficiently?

I forgot to mention earlier about Golden Stat Hoops, a new Warriors blog with a statistical emphasis. It's a timely blog in light of the fact that basketball has started trending away from boxscore stats like FG% to more telling metrics.

GSH's first post examines a problem that has plagued the Warriors for a couple years -- scoring efficiency -- using eFG% (efficient field goal percentage) and TS% (true shooting percentage) to predict if the team's efficiency will improve this season. I found it a great and informative read, especially since FG% and PPG are too limited to do an effective shooter (or otherwise) justice.

A Banner Start to the Offseason

Remember when Sabean accidentally DFA'd Sergio Romo?

He slipped up again, except this time it wasn't Romo and not so accidental. According to Paul DePodesta, the Giants removed Travis Denker from the 40-man roster and the Padres picked him up for free.

Cue obligatory "what was Sabean thinking?" picture.

First, let me quickly address the other victims of what OGC calls "the purge of the 40-man roster."

• Tyler Walker: Good guy, but expendable in light of Romo's success.
• Kevin Correia: Will probably be sent back to the bullpen once Lowry returns, unless he is signed by another team as a free agent.
  
• Brad Hennessey: Ditto.
• Eliezer Alfonzo: Expendable, thanks to Sandoval and Posey coming down (up?) the pipes.
• Geno Espinelli: He looked okay in the bigs, though he could use more time in the minors to improve his stuff.
• Scott McClain: The Giants will probably renew his contract.
  
• Ivan Ochoa: Should have been Vizquel's replacement instead of Bocock. He did a fine job defensively and didn't look lost at the plate.

Only problem I have is if Lowry goes down again (which is likely considering the number of setbacks he faced during the season), the Giants don't have a clear backup starter. Pat Misch?

I won't lose sleep over the fact that Denker is gone. What is befuddling is the lack of any benefit for the Giants from dropping Denker.

The Giants dumped a middle infielder who wasn't an outstanding prospect, but who did show signs of being a capable major league player. His MLE's (243/.332/.381) are below average, even for a second baseman, but all he did during his short stint as a Giant was show patience at the plate and hit for power. Denker might well turn out to be a AAAA player, and even so, he still has more value than the remaining 2B's and seven empty roster spots.

So where's the benefit? If the Giants had a legit 2B waiting in the minors, then I have no problem with dropping Denker from the team. But they don't. Instead of strengthening an organizational weakness, this move is just another item in Sabean's laundry list of personnel mistakes. If the dumping of Travis Denker is the start of the offseason, I'm not exactly confident in the moves-to-come during the rest of the winter.

Bill Neukom Speaks

Bill Neukom held his first press conference as the Giants' new managing partner a few days ago and outlined his thoughts on the direction of the franchise. Considering he now parks his car in Peter Magowan's former space, it's a good idea to take a look at what he has to say.

Andy Baggarly (of course) has already transcribed the entire conference, including a few individual questions, here.

Below are my thoughts on some snippets I found interesting:

And how we’re going to do that is by emphasizing and investing even more in homegrown talent. We have to find the best baseball athletes we can find, through better scouting and better analysis of the amateur draft.

Though the draft is a given no-brainer as a fundamental part of a successful franchise, it's refreshing to hear Neukom clearly deem it as the primary focus for the 2009 season and beyond. Free agent signings have been the Giants' modus operandi since 2000 up until two years ago, when they concluded what was hailed as a strong draft. The string of good scouting and drafting, including signing international players, should continue under Neukom's direction.

We want to bring those people along in a way that enables them to convert their gifts into major league skills and we think we’ll have maybe a little more time and a little more discretion. Some of the people who came up this year, frankly, came up sooner than might have been perfect if we’d had a deeper system. It somewhat accelerated things in 2008 and we hope we can get to more of a sort of modulated progression.

The Giants promised a youth movement in the beginning of the 2008 season, and they sure did deliver on their word. A total of 16 rookies made their first debut, although some of them might have benefited from more time in the minor leagues. The Giants entered the season without any defined plan, but the "throw-stuff-at-the-wall-and-see-what-sticks" philosophy worked out better than I expected, thanks to the emergence of Burriss, Romo, Sandoval, and Hinshaw. Once the franchise decides the areas that need the most improvement, call-ups shouldn't be as haphazard.

We have asked Brian and his group to look broadly at the question of the roster for 2009 and beyond. That means primary emphasis on homegrown talent, (determining) how much of this young talent can we expect to produce on a sustainable basis during a championship season next year, whether we need to complement it with a trade, or fold those risks and expenses with a free agent signing.

More emphasis about building from the inside out.

We said to Brian and to Bruce Bochy, 'Look, don’t be constrained by a placeholder number for player payroll right now. Think of this in terms of how you’re going to assemble a roster that’s going to be competitive in ‘09 and come back to us.'

Here's the crux of Neukom's plan: first assemble the best team possible for the long-run, and then worry about finances. The "placeholder" is a rough assessment of the cost to field a contending team, but the front office can overspend on a player (or players) if it believes that is the right move in the long-run.

When it comes to picking the talent, we need the sharpest baseball eyes: people who can pick the 16-year-old arm out of the cornfield. We also need to be very well informed with all that is at our fingertips. We need to be smart about that. It’ll be a blend.

Yay! Scouting is no good without statistical analysis, and vice versa. Neukom hits the nail on the head with his suggestion of a blend of both baseball eyes and SABR. Time to upgrade that GVSORP^TM (Gritty Veteran Savvy Over Replacement Player) to OPS+ and FIP.

How about bringing in the fences?
(Pause) It’s not a concept we’re currently considering. I think it’s a very exciting ballpark.

Heh, I couldn't have said it any better. One, the Giants have a flyball pitching staff, and two, the other team can hit home runs too. Unless the field crew moves the fences in and out every half inning.

NLCS Game Two

I'm officially done with SAT classes and the SAT for now, or at least until I get my scores back and find out I have to re-take it, so that means a renewal of blog updates!

I'm watching the game right now on MLB.com's four camera angled coverage, and let me say right now, I love the Phillies. Even if Shane Victorino is on the team.